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Forex · News · Forex Forecasts

NEWS / Forex Forecasts

EURUSD, GBPUSD. Despite block of fundamental news market is slack before Employment report of US Department of Labor.

12:32 02/03/2006

Quotations on foreign exchange market are kept in a narrow sideways, limited by levels 1,2180-1,2000 on euro. Despite a series of fundamental news the tenders are dull. Today the market expects key news of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor - the Employment Report.

 

The main event of the last day was ECB Governing Council meeting and ECB decision on rates. ECB has left the minimal changeable refinancing rate at a level of 2.25 %, the deposit rate, forming the basis for the rates in Eurozone’s financial markets, at a level of 1.25 %, marginal crediting rate, being a ceiling, at a level of 3.25 %.

 

Practically all analytical agencies assumed that ECB would leave rates without change, therefore this decision was not unexpected for the market. Today ECB Head Jean-Claude Trichet has again used in his speech a word "vigilance" for the description of a position of the Central Bank concerning interest rates, and has declared that inflationary risks are still up. Besides he has expressed concern about expensive energy, which can lead to secondary inflationary effects.

 

The dollar has eased a little after CIA information that on available information Al-Kaida is preparing for new acts of terrorism in the USA.

 

Iran’s destiny and its nuclear program continue to be settled in Vienna. International Atomic Energy Agency Heads should decide whether it is necessary to take this matter to Security Council of the United Nations. In any case, it is already clearly that the Security Council will be officially informed on a problem.

 

The IAEA officials have been guarded today as serious passions around a situation have run high.

 

Today IAEA Head Mohammed al-Baradei has said that nuclear ambitions of Iran do not pose "a direct threat". "I should emphasize especially this moment", - he has added. "We enter a critical phase, but not in a crisis situation".

 

At the same time he has informed that Iran should “restore the confidence" to itself as there is an obvious confidence deficit to the country.

 

By estimations of the western special services, in some years, maximum - in a decade, Iran can be near creation of its own nuclear weapon though Iran denies such intentions actively.

 

Positive data jobless claims have allowed the dollar to remain at former levels: According to the data of the US Department of Labor, for a week for January, 28th seasonably adjusted initial jobless claims were unexpectedly down 11,000 to 273,000. The economists, polled by Bloomberg News, expected growth up to 295,000.

 

4-week average value of new claims - less subject to volatility of the indicator - was down 4,750 to 284,250 - the minimal value since June 2000.

 

For the accounting period there was not observed any special factors, such as hurricanes, strikes or holidays, capable to distort figures, PR Department representative commented on.

 

The technical picture of the market has not changed much. We shall remind that the basic movement of the market is expected today, at the beginning of the American session after an issue of the Employment Report of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor.

 

Expectation of the further increase of the rate and positive data on nonfarm payrolls growth enable the dollar to press support levels. There is quite probable correction deepening. Therefore Shorts on euro under these levels with 1 purpose 1,1915 and the perspective purpose 1,1720 are important.

Pound sterling the same levels - Shorts from a support level of 1,7635, 1 purpose - 1,7545, 2 purpose - 1,7415.      

   

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