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NEWS / Forex Forecasts

USDCHF, USDCAD Investors wait for ECB answer to the US FRS recent decision...

14:36 02/02/2006

So, after the publication of the final communique right after the meeting on Tuesday, expectations of the further interest rate rise in the USA have increased, that keeps supporting a rate of the American currency.

 

Besides that fact was significant that the dollar has remained stable after the publication of weak data on a business level in the USA.

Let's remind that ISM index in the USA made 54.8for January, at the forecast 57.0, and the previous value 55.6.

Thus the new orders index decreased to 58.0 points in January from 59.1 points in December. And the price index rose up to 65.0 points from 63.0 points, and the employment index dropped to 51.3 points from 53.6 points.

Let's notice that the index above 50 points means expansion, below - letdown. Value of the index exceeds a mark of 50 points since June, 2003.

As a whole, on experts’ forecasts this year the capital investments become the main source of economic growth as the companies update the equipment. However the increase in demand leads not only to acceleration of rates of manufacture growth, but also to strengthening of inflationary pressure.

 

Another indicator, on the contrary, has been considerably above the forecasts. So, the construction spending index in the USA made +1.0% for December, at the forecast 0.0 %. And the previous value has been revised from +0.2 % up to +0.5 %.

Year over year construction spending in the USA rose on 8.1 % in December, 2005. In 2005 construction spending rise made 8.9 % to 2004 and reached a record $1.120 billion.

 

Today at 12:45 GMT there will be published the results of ECB Governing Council meeting concerning change of interest rates in Europe (12). And later, at 13:30 GMT press conference on results of ECB Governing Council meeting takes place, and the market’s participants hope to know the prospects of the further steps of the bank.

The last time the central bank raised the rate by 0.25 % in December that became the first increase for the last five years.

We shall also remind that yesterday the Ifo President Hans Verner Zinn declared that he was completely confident that ECB would raise the interest rate soon.

 

At the same time (at 13:30 GMT) significant data on the US economy will be issued:

 

- Jobless claims in the USA for a week by 28.01. The forecast 290 000, and the previous value was equal to 283 000;

- Preliminary value of the labor productivity index in the USA for the fourth quarter. The forecast +1.7 %, the previous value +4.7 %;

- Preliminary value of a cost per unit index in the USA for the fourth quarter. The previous value-1.0 %.

 

As a result, considering the last events and the market’s reaction to them, we recommend to buy a dollar/franc rate from current levels (1.2900). Though we do not exclude probability of little small descending correction before the further rate growth, however the probability of long-term strengthening of the pair seems to us quite high.

The purpose of growth will become the levels close to 1.3100.

And the dollar/canadian pair, after the previous sharp dip, prepares for ascending correction. Therefore sales of a rate should be closed at current levels.

The next opening of positions will be possible after the signals of new decrease.

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