Market’s daily review
11:47 02/01/2006

On Tuesday, expecting Federal Open Market Committee meeting, trade in a range proceeded.

Before the announcement of FRS decision the American currency decreased a little to euro, having reached a mark 1.2185, however then the dollar got some support and a rate was established at a mark 1.2150.

 

As expected the US FRS FOMC raised the interest rate on 0.25 % up to a level of 4.5 %.

FOMC accompanying statement said that, probably, some further toughening of a monetary policy would be necessary to neutralize risks for economic growth and price stability.

This means high probability of the further interest rates rise in the USA.

 

According to the US Department of Labor the labor costs grew 0.8 % in the USA in the fourth quarter, being in line with economists’ forecasts.

Growth of manpower costs index was the same the last quarter.

 

The consumer confidence in the USA has risen the third month in a row in January and has reached a maximum for more than three years.

The consumer confidence index picked up to 106.3 in January against the revised value 103.8 in December. It is a peak since June 2002 that is a little above the previous top of 106.2 in June, 2005.

Economists assumed growth approximately up to 104.6.

The consumer confidence in December was to 103.6 primary.

 

In its turn, the British pound dipped on Tuesday after the issue of data on retail sales index.

 

According to the Confederation of the British industry report the sales volume in retail trade dropped up to -11in January from 0 in December.

The analysts’ forecast was +1.

 

The bank of England has informed that money supply ?4 rose 1.3 % in December against the last month and 12.6 % year over year. Final data have remained without revision concerning preliminary ones, published a month ago.

 

Eurozone’s data were worse than the expectations.

Unexpected reduction of retail sales volume and growth of number of jobless in Germany have sharply lowered probability of increase of ECB discount rate in the near future.

 

For December the retail sales index in view of inflation in Germany made-1.4 % for a month, -1.6 % for a year, at the forecast +1.0 % for a month.

The previous value of the given index made -1.1 % for a month, -0.2 % year over year.

For December the wholesales index in Germany in view of inflation made +0.8 % for a month, +1.2 % for a year against the previous value -0.1 % for a month, +2.2 % for a year.

 

Change of number of jobless in Germany, adjusted for seasonal variations, made +69000 for January, at the forecast -10000.

The previous value made -110000.

Unemployment in Germany, except for seasonal fluctuations, made 12.1 % for January against the previous value of 11.1 %.

 

The sentiment index in Eurozone’s economy rose up to 101.8 from 100.6 in December. The December indicator has been revised to increase from 100.5.

The sentiment index in Eurozone’s economy has been above the forecasts and has reached the peak since summer of 2001.

 

According to IFO data capacity utilization in a manufacturing industry of Germany raised up to 84.8 % in the fourth quarter, 2005 against 83.5 % in the third quarter.

Capacity utilization in the fourth quarter was maximal since the second quarter, 2001.

As data showed, in German manufacturing industry sentiment concerning business expectations and current conditions have slightly grown.

Expectations have grown up to +18.0 against 12.3 in December, a maximum since February, 2004.

Current conditions have risen up to +9.2 against +5.4, a maximum since February, 2001 (+11.5).

 

For December the producer price index in Italy made +0.3 % for a month, +4.1 % for a year, at the forecast +0.1 % for a month, +4.0 % for a year.

The previous value of the given index made -0.3 % m\m and +3.7 % y\y.

 

The consumer confidence index in France made -27 for January against the previous value -30.

Unemployment in France made 9.5 % for December, at the forecast 9.6 %.

 

For December the producer price index in France made -0.1 % for a month, +3.1 % for a year against the previous value -0.4 % for a month, +2.8 % for a year.

It was expected that the given index would make +0.2 % m\m, and +3.4 % y\y.


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