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Forex · News · USMarket

NEWS / USMarket

USmarket Despite indexes cut investors’ consumer mood is still high

11:47 01/31/2006

Before today's FRS meeting on rates, which will be the last time under Alan Greenspan's direction, shares on Wall Street have opened with growth.

 

Let's remind that overwhelming majority of analysts predict that the rate will be raised on 0.25 % the 14-th time up to 4.5 %. Many experts wait that Fed can change slightly the tone of the following statement, having hinted that one more increase in March is in doubt.

Experts consider that FRS can simply tell that new rate increases "can" be needed. Now, as economists consider FRS rate is close to a neutral level.

Investors try to understand how many rates increases will be.

 

The futures market assumes with 80 % probability that the rate will also be raised in March. We shall remind that since February, 1st FRS new head becomes Ben Bernanke.

It is considered that with his arrival FRS will continue movement to even a greater transparency.

 

So, for example, Morgan Stanley economist Richard Berner said: "Openness on the inflation purposes will grow, but in a current situation FRS cannot say about rates definitely any more. Financial stability is very important, but it is not the only purpose. Bernanke has to come across some uncertainty of economy. So as a result less distinctness in the monetary policy} will lead to stronger volatility and to growth of risk premium".

 

Thus at opening Exxon Mobil papers rose in price after the publication of good quarter results.

 

" Today and tomorrow the tenders will be focused on FRS. However the last corporate reports will support the market, - Evan Olsen from Stephens Inc. has told.

 

As a result expecting for FOMC meeting investors prefer not to make new investment decisions. We shall remind that as the US FRS chairman Greenspan will be replaced by Bernanke in February investors worry a little about the continuity of a monetary policy.

Besides this week the investors’ attention will be directed to the publication of the US labour market review for January.

 

Yesterday's data have sustained a positive mood of investors. So, the core PCE which reflects personal consumption except for the prices for food stuffs and energy, rose 0.1 % m/m and 1.9 % y/y in the USA in December of the last year.

Thus experts predicted a gain of 0.2 % m/m.

And in November the index raised 0.2 % m/m, and earlier it was informed about a gain of 0.1 % m/m.

Let's also notice that the given index is one of the most important indicators for FRS, which considers it at the rates decision.

 

At the same personal incomes index in the USA made +0.4 % for December, at the forecast +0.5 %, and the previous value +0.4 %. And personal expenses index in the USA made +0.9 % for December, at the forecast +0.7 %, and the previous value +0.5 %.

 

The current oil prices keep putting pressure on the share market. We shall remind that oil rose in price on Friday after messages that the USA have insisted on official transfer of the nuclear file of Iran to United Nations Security Council. In connection with last events OPEC President has tried to soften a situation, having declared that the cartel is not going to raise production if Iran reduce oil export.

Let's remind that March futures for oil WTI grew $1.50 up to $67.76 for barrel. And on today morning oil traded in area of $68.30.

 

As a result Dow-Jones index of New York stock exchange has fallen 7.29 points and was closed at a level 10899.92. NASDAQ index has grown 2.55 points and is at a level 2306.78. S&P 500 index has risen 1.48 points and is at a level 1285.20.

Profitability of the US state obligations for 30 years has grown 0.028 in comparison with the previous closing and makes 4.708.

 

We recommend while to continue to keep purchases of Dow Jones index futures, opened from a level 10690. The purposes of growth of the index hold good.

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