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Forex · News · Forex Forecasts

NEWS / Forex Forecasts

USDCHF,USDCAD Maybe tonight situation will clear up...

17:33 01/31/2006

So, experts notice that before today's FRS FOMC meeting investors prefer not to make new investment decisions.

Let's also remind that today is the last day in the post of FRS Chairman Alan Greenspan then Bernanke will replace him in February.

Let's notice that Greenspan has been FRS Chairman for more than 18 years, and his successor is chief economic adviser of the US President George Bush Ben Bernanke, who worked with Greenspan three years. That is the continuity of a monetary policy, as a whole, does not raise doubts.

As a result the investors’ attention is directed to results of today's FRS meeting on rates as overwhelming majority of experts are sure of the next rate increase on 0.25 %, the market’s participants are interested most of all in following FOMC statements.

The confidence of the next increase is based on strong economic indicators in the USA.

 

Thus investors do not aspire to undertake any actions in the market, assuming that FOMC will clear the further position concerning rates.

It is remarkable that, in many analysts’ opinion, prospects of rates rise depend in many respects on basis of Fed estimation and its interpretation of last economic data.

So, Lehman Brothers experts suppose that FRS rate will reach a level of 5 % by the end of this year. This opinion is based on expectations of that the subsequent economic reports will be positive.

"Probably, those factors which led to such weak GDP growth in 4 quarter, will change in 1 quarter. We wait for economic growth on 4 %", - David Mozina from Lehman Brothers says.

 

Let's notice that yesterday's personal incomes/expenses data in the USA were more positive rather than negative. So, personal incomes index in the USA made +0.4 % for December, at the forecast +0.5 %, and the previous value +0.4 %. And personal expenses index in the USA made +0.9 % for December, at the forecast +0.7 %, and the previous value +0.5 %.

And today before promulgation of results of FOMC meeting at 19:30 GMT, it is necessary to pay attention to the publication of the important indicators:

- Manpower costs index in the USA for the fourth quarter. The forecast +0.8 %, the previous value +0.8 %. The publication is planned at 13:30 GMT.

- Consumers confidence index in the USA for January, which is published at 15:00 GMT. The forecast 105,0 previous value 103.6.

- Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index in the USA for January is issued the same time. The forecast 61.0, the previous value 61.5.

While we recommend being outside of the market, and players held dollar/canadian "shorts"- to keep them.

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