So, it is necessary to remind again that today's US GDP data for the fourth quarter become determining for the further vector of trade of the basic currency pairs.

Let's notice that the dollar was supported after yesterday's durable order report, which exceeded the analysts’ forecast.

Let's remind that durable orders rose 1.3 % m/m in December. Thus the November gain has been revised up to 5.4 % from 4.4 %.

Except for the transport the durable orders volume climbed 0.9 % in December in comparison with growth of 0.6 % in November.

The orders volume, except for defense industry, has raised 0.8 % m/m against a gain of 7.0 % in November.

Investments into the equipment will allow supporting economic growth this year. It is obvious, that the companies invest in manufacture to raise profitability.

It is quite logical that after such data many economists have revised their forecasts of the US GDP to increase.

Today the preliminary value of the US gross domestic product index for the fourth quarter will be published at 13:30 GMT. The forecast +2.9 % for a year, and the previous value +4.1 % for a year.

We believe that the data above predicted value will render essential support to dollar that will lead a dollar exchange rate to area of local support at 1.2005-55, or a resistance level at 1.2890 for a dollar/franc rate.

And unexpectedly surprise data (exceeding the value of 3,5 %) become the basis for the further growth of a dollar exchange rate. Such growth of the American currency rate can become a challenge for last tendency of the letdown, which have begun right after New Year.

Many experts believe that a high value of the US GDP growth will lead to that the US FRS will continue a cycle of rates increase.

The market’s reaction to today's publication of gross domestic product of the USA can be rather significant - the majority of participants of the Asian markets will, probably, start closing their positions before long weekends.

Let's remind that on Monday and on Tuesday many Asian countries will celebrate east New Year Day, and also a Muslim holiday. So, China - on January, 29-31th, Hong Kong - on January, 28-31th, Korea - on January, 28-30th, Malaysia - on January, 29-30th, Singapore - on January, 29-31th - will have a rest. Moreover, Malaysia and Indonesia will have a Muslim holiday on January, 31st.

Let's also remind that other yesterday's data over the USA were positive, and could support a dollar exchange rate. As the US Department of Labor informed the initial jobless claims came up to 283.000 for a week, ended on January, 21st, 2005, from 272.000 a week earlier.

The last week data have been revised 1 000 above up to 71.000 claims.

Let's notice that on the basis of initial data experts forecasted that the initial jobless claims would grow up to 305.000.

The average initial jobless claims decreased to 288.750 for four weeks by January, 21st from 299.500.

It was originally informed on 299.000 claims. As a result the current indicator became the lowest since July, 2000.

The total number of jobless in the USA increased 53.000 for January, 14th up to 2,58 million.

As a whole these data testify to the further growth of the US labor market, and the companies prefer not only to keep skilled employees, but also to invite new ones expecting consumers’ activity rise.

A dollar exchange rate growth is still restrained by risks of renewal of a global rise in oil prices. We shall remind that on a background of instability of a situation in Nigeria where the oil production was reduced on more than 220.000 barrels a day, and the general intensity around the Iranian nuclear program, the oil prices have again picked up.

Besides Reuters agency referring to consulting company Oil Movements analyst Roy Mason, has informed that OPEC oil export can go down.

So, oil export from the countries of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will make 24.9 million barrels a day for four weeks by February, 11th, 2006 in comparison with 24.98 million barrels a day for four weeks by January, 14th, 2006.

On this background technical analysts warn about that yesterday oil quotations finished correction and are again in a range of the up tendency with prospect of the further growth to an absolute maximum and coming to the price of $80 for a barrel.

As a result we recommend, before the publication of the US GDP data for the fourth quarter, to keep dollar/franc and dollar/canadian "shorts".

If GDP data are above the forecasts - it is necessary to close current positions immediately, this case the probability of continuation of dollar growth increases. And if value is below 2,9 % the dollar weakness will receive a new fundamental impulse, and an opportunity of achievement of the purpose (a level 1.2450 on dollar/franc) becomes rather high already today.

Let's notice that the dollar/canadian rate is more inclined to continuation of the down tendency, and the issue of data in line with the forecasts cannot keep pair from the further falling.