Market ‘s daily review
11:47 01/26/2006

On Wednesday the American currency grew against the Japanese yen.

Falling of yen was caused by several factors, one of which was a steady foreign assets’ appeal for the Japanese investors.

 

In its turn, dollar rise against yen has led to strengthening of the American currency against many basic currencies.

So the euro/dollar rate has fallen up to a mark 1.2235.

The euro rate was under pressure after the message that ECB members did not consent to a question of necessity of interest rate increase of in Europe (12).

Though, the economic data, showing the growth of business activity in Germany, have supported a little the single European currency.

 

According to Ifo data the business index in Germany, the largest economy of Eurozone, climbed up to 102,0in January, having exceeded considerably analysts’ forecasts of 99.7.

The indicator reached a peak since May, 2000.

It can strengthen speculation concerning the probable increase of ECB rate – may be in February.

 

For December the import price index in Germany made +0.3 % for a month, +6.8 % for a year, at the forecast +0.2 % in monthly calculation.

The previous value of the given index made -0.2 % in monthly calculation, and +5.5 % year over year.

The import price index, except for the oil prices, made +2.9 % for a year for December against the previous value +2.5 % for a year. An annual value of the first indicator is maximal since December, 2000.

 

Besides the core indicator of business confidence in France has also grown, as well as predicted up to 103.

The previous value has been revised from 102 up to 103.

 

The consumer confidence index in Italy made 106.4 for January, at the forecast 108.4. The previous value made 108.2.

The indicator is minimal since October of the last year, and its falling is observed the second month in a row.

 

For November the retail sales index in Italy made 0.0 % for a month, +1.7 % for a year, at the forecast +0.2 % for a month.

The previous value made +0.3 % for a month, +1.4 % for a year. The given indicator also was at a low level.

 

As the US National Association of Realtors informed on Wednesday, the existing home sales reduced on 5.7 % in December up to the seasonally-weighed value 6.60 million y\y, a minimum for almost two years.

Sales were much more below the value predicted by economists, 6.89 million.

It leads to anxiety concerning a condition of the housing market.

If new home sales data, which will be published on Friday, also show dip, pressure upon dollar can increase.

 

The economic data over the UK, published yesterday, have supported the pound, in particular, the publication of higher value of GDP index in Great Britain, and also data of the minutes of the last meeting of Bank’s of England Committee on the monetary policy which reduce the probability of interest rate decrease in February.

 

So, in the fourth quarter GDP growth of Great Britain increased up to 0.6 % in quarter calculation against expected 0.5 %.

Year over year growth made 1.7 %.

Quarter rates of economic growth of the third quarter made 0.4 %.

The level of economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2005 was the highest since the 4 quarter of 2004 when this indicator also was equal to 0.6 %.

 

According to the published minutes of the meeting of Bank’s of England Committee on the monetary policy from January, 11-12th, eight Committee members from nine voted for leaving the repo interest rate without changes at a level of 4.50 %. Such result of voting was predicted by the majority of economists.

Despite that one member (Nikell) supported the rate reduction on 0.25 %, the majority of Committee members expect renewal of economic growth in the near future.

 

New Zealand Reserve Bank has declared today that the official interest rate remains at a former level of 7.25 %.


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