So, ECB members do not arrange a settlement with a question of necessity of interest rate increase in Europe (12). As ECB Board Lorentso Bini-Smagi declared yesterday the bank should be cautious because of uncertainty of economic growth.

Bini-Smagi warned that preservation of negative real interest rates, when there is not the risk of recession, can negatively affect economy of a zone of euro.

"While there are no clear signals about that how much economic growth is confident in fact", - Bini-Smagi has noticed.

German Ifo President Hans-Verner Zinn stated the opposite point of view yesterday. He said that ECB had all basis for increase of interest rates.

"They need gradual increase, it is high time", - Hans-Verner Zinn summed up.

As a result, the experts now are inclined to believe that ECB will gradually raise the rate and the rate rise in a zone of euro can be expected not earlier than March.

At the same time yesterday in the market there were rumors that FOMC instruction after the meeting on January, 31st can hint at increase of the interest rate in March that will certainly support the American currency.

As a result, after the growth on the eve and the tests of tops of the beginning of week after the publication of Ifo data, which have appeared very strong, the euro/dollar rate fell up to a mark 1.2233. Some experts point out that strengthening of a dollar exchange rate has also been supported by yesterday's the world oil prices cut.

Let's remind that the oil price in New York has dipped 1.36 dollars, up to a level of 65.70 dollars for barrel.

Thus the market’s participants were not confused with yesterday's the real estate data in the USA. We shall remind that as the National Association of Realtors informed on Wednesday home sales in the USA went down 5.7 % y\y in December 2005 to 6.6 million units from November 6.97 million units.

And experts predicted sales cut in December to 6.90 million units.

Let's notice that about 85 % of total amount of the housing market fall to the share of existing home market.

As a result the investors’ anxiety about decrease in housing market activity has only increased. We shall remind that growth of mortgage lending and housing costs lead to recession of activity the third month in a row.

In December home sale in the USA were minimal since March, and average house cost rose 10.5 % from December of the last year up to $21 thousand.

Today the publication of three significant indicators will be in focus of attention of the market’s participants:

- jobless claims in the USA for a week on 21.01 (at 13:30 GMT). The forecast 295000, and the previous value 271000;

- durable orders in the USA for December, the publication is planned at 13:30 GMT. The forecast +1.5 %, the previous value +4.4 %;

- help-wanted index in the USA for December, the publication at 15:00 GMT. The forecast 40, the previous value 39.

The key release before FOMC meeting on January, 31st will be the publication of GDP data. We shall notice that many experts doubt that the last quarter of the last year the US economic growth will be good.

Some analysts suppose that GDP growth can be very weak because of the hurricanes. The average forecast makes up only 2.6 % in comparison with 4.1 % the last quarter. Thus some experts do not exclude that growth of gross domestic product can be below 2 %.

The intrigue is that if GDP growth is so low the market’s participants will not only stop waiting for the rate increase in March, but also will doubt even in its increase in January. That, as a result will give euro a powerful ascending impulse.

And if the market’s fears are not true, the probability of correction in favor of dollar will considerably increase. Then the euro/dollar can be supported at 1.2005-30, and the dollar/franc will reach resistance at 1.2890.

While, before the publication of GDP data for the fourth quarter, we recommend to keep opened earlier sales of dollar/franc and dollar/canadian. Mentioned earlier purposes and protective stop also hold good.