USDCHF, USDCAD Last economic data and escalation of geopolitical intensity speed up dollar cut...

So, on a background of recent statements of heads of Federal reserve system of the USA about opportunity of the fast termination of a current cycle of the basic interest rate increase and the statements of the European central bank’s representatives, testifying to a high probability of the next increase of the basic interest rates, euro/dollar rate has continued its growth, having reached a level of 1.2321, maximal for the last four months.

Let's remind that last statement which has strengthened expectations of ECB rate rise was a statement of the ECB Governing Council member Noier who declared yesterday that for support of price stability the bank would make everything.

However another ECB Board member - Klaus Libsher declared that cost of loans in Eurozone was “very low”, the monetary and policy was very soft.

Politicians should "adhere to their area" and not try to convince ECB to keep the rate at one level, - Libsher has told. ECB did not promise a series of increases when increased the rate on 0.25 point up to 2.25 % in December that became the first increase of the rate for five years, the banker has emphasized.

"We should and we will keep hands free to take necessary decisions at any moment, as always", - Libsher has told.

Yesterday's statistic data could not support a dollar exchange rate. So, the leading indicators index in the USA made +0.1 % for December, at the forecast +0.2 %. And the previous value has been revised from +0.5 % up to +0.9 %.

As a result, in spite of the fact that the index has been below the predicted level, but it grows the third month successively.

Let's remind that the index includes such indicators as an average workweek, initial jobless claims, consumer goods orders, building permits, cost of shares, consumer’s expectations and others.

Experts point out that the published value of the index speaks about slowdown of rates of economic growth the nearest three-six months.

Households can reduce their expenses as the growing oil prices limit their purchasing capacity.

Besides analysts pay attention to that because of growing mortgage lending prices and increasing housing cost, the boom in the market of the real estate, proceeding within the last five years, goes down.

It is necessary to remember that the former factors, putting pressure on the dollar, are still in focus of attention of the market’s participants.

So, anxiety about the Iranian nuclear program and a message that Israel declared toughly that would not allow an opportunity of the nuclear weapon development by Iran, have caused nervous reaction in the financial markets and a rise in oil prices up to tops for the last four months.

Moreover the last weekends the President of France Jacque Chirac said about an opportunity to use not only conventional armaments against the countries, which heads will resort to terrorist methods.

Iranian government reacted immediately: "To use the nuclear weapon or to threaten with its use, is a language of the last century".

As a result escalation of geopolitical intensity and new increase of the oil prices, as well as always in such cases, pushes investors to sell the dollar and to buy "currencies-refuges".

Today, on a background of absence of publications on the American economy, investors will likely pay attention to results of meeting of Bank of Canada Governing Council at 14:00 GMT. It is expected that strengthening of inflationary pressure will push Governing Council members to take the next "hawkish" decision.

We recommend to the players, who have opened sales of a dollar/franc rate from levels 1.2720, to keep them. The first purpose of sales at a level 1.2450 holds good while. Thus protective stop should be placed at a level of "make-out" (1.2720).

Recommendations for dollar/Canadian sales from the levels, mentioned in the previous reviews, also hold good. After some ascending correction we expect continuation of descending movement of the pair, which, as a result, will overcome key support levels

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