The market is full of different opinions and rumors about the reasons of yesterday's dollar falling. After quite passive last week, the market has determined at last in its predilections. The uptrend on euro and pound sterling has received the further development.

In opinion of leading analytical agencies the reasons of falling of the US national currency have served several factors.

One of the main factors is the intensity around the oil market. Despite some consolidation of oil futures quotations - the prices keep up at record-breaking high levels. The oil prices decreased from a 4-month's maximum after the messages that Saudi Arabia would cover the whole shortage of oil export from Nigeria.

The oil light sweet with delivery in March, traded with downturn on $0.40 at a mark of $67.70 per a barrel against closing at $68.10 on NYMEX. However experts of the raw markets warn that militant attacks on oil objects in Nigeria and political conflicts around the nuclear program of Iran create strong support for the oil prices, in spite of the fact that now they are up 20% than a month ago.

In analysts’ opinion correction in the oil market was caused by too sharp hike on the eve, having induced oil traders to fix profit at the record prices.

The rumors that Iran started to transfer its currency assets from the European banks before possible sanctions from the United Nations, add fuel to the fire around a question on Iran. An article on a website "Business Week OnLine" informed that the Iranian decision to leave the European markets can affect the deposit’s sum of about $50 billion. Earlier at the beginning of January it was informed that Central bank executive Ibragim Sheibani declared that the balance of exchange reserves should increase up to $14-15 billion by March, 2006 against z current balance $5 bln. On March 20, 2006 Iran is going to open the International Oil Stock Exchange so that the country can get euro for oil on more regular basis.

The dollar was also under pressure after the last FRS and ECB statements.

President of Saint Louis FRB William Pool declared earlier that the market expected FRS to increase the rate at the meeting on January, 31st, then one more increase in March (with 50 % probability).

W. Pool said that this reasonable assumption "and it can, possibly, become true even among statements of FRS officials about an establishment of a maximum level of rates

The member of ECB Governing Council Christian Noier has again reminded that now discount rates of Eurozone are minimal on historical standards and that ECB will take all necessary steps to keep price stability. The last statement has caused sharp growth of the bull moods on euro.

The US fundamental data has been disappointing:

The report of the Conference Board has disappointed traders. The Conference Board index grew 0.1 % for December after the revised 0.9% in November. Economists predicted 0.2 % of growth in December against initially published 0.5 % in November.

In economists’ opinion consumers can limit their expenses as increase of a price level on energy leaves less money for the goods and services, reducing rates of economic development. The five years' boom in the housing market ceases, as higher interest rates and the housing prices have lowered purchasing capacity, having limited growth of builders’ incomes.

The medium-term uptrend on the European currencies, as well as it was supposed at the end of the last year, has got its development. By the end of a year the world downtrend on euro had all technical signs of degeneration: generated five wave structure of a trend and outbid on oscillators. The medium-term trend has broken out a global line of a trend but while it is considered as the first wave of correction. Though the fundamental background develops against the dollar, technically up movement has potential of development to the price of 1,2800.

The recommendations hold good:

"Technical breakdown of resistance lines became a logic continuation of uptrend on euro and pound sterling. Potential of the third wave a trend holds good. The market is aimed at going to the nearest potential purposes.

Longs, according to Friday recommendation, are kept:

«Technically medium-term uptrend has potential of development. The 3 wave of a trend has not yet realized its potential, have not developed, therefore the postponed Longs from a level 1,2186 have good prospects, with the purposes 1 1,2310 and 2-1,2450.»

Stop can be moved on 150 points from a current level. On pound sterling are the same levels, a key level of opening is a Long - 1,7800, the purpose 1 - 1,7930, the perspective purpose-1,8050. Stop is not close than 150 points. "On euro the price has almost reached the 1 purpose, therefore it is possible to close at a current rate - 1,2300, on 2 purpose stop should be move in make-out. On pound it is necessary to move stop on 100 points from a current rate - on 1,7750.