USmarket At support of oil prices cut key indexes have stopped letdown
11:47 01/23/2006

Oil quotations letdown has increased investors’ optimism On this positive background the key indexes also have got support from Ford Motor Co. positive quarterly report, shown growth of net profit of the company on 19 % in the 4 quarter.

As a result the shares on Wall Street have opened with small growth.

 

So we shall remind that Ford Motor Co. net profit rose 19 % up to $124 million, or 8 cents per a share in the 4 quarter against $104 million, or 6 cents per a share a year earlier.

The profit went up owing to good work of the financial department and Hertz Co. sale. Except for special expense items Ford profit made 26 cents per a share.

Experts predicted only 1 cent for a share.

The proceeds made up $47.56 billion in comparison wiht $44.92 billion in the 4 quarter of 2004.

 

Thus the market has been under strong pressure of unexpectedly weak data of Bank of America. We shall remind that Bank’s of America net profit decreased 2 % in 4 quarter in comparison with similar quarter of 2004 up to $3.77 billion, or 93 cents for a share about $3.85 billion, or 94 cents for a share a year earlier.

Experts expected profit $1.02 for a share. As it is informed in the report the profit reduced because of the weak indicators of a trading department. The income raised up to 14.122 billion in 4 quarter from 13.713 billion.

On results of the last year the bank got the record profit of $16.89 billion, or $4.15 for a share.

 

Yesterday's statistic data could not support noticeably the indexes. We shall remind that as Conference Board informed the index of leading economic indicators of the USA climbed 0.1 % up to 138.5 points in December, 2005 in comparison with November.

Analysts predicted growth of the index on 0.2 %.

In November the index rose 0.9 %, according to the revised data. Earlier it was informed on growth on 0.5 %.

Let's remind that the index includes such indicators as an average workweek, initial jobless claims, consumer goods orders, building permits, cost of shares, consumer’s expectations and others.

The published value of the index speaks about slowdown of rates of economic growth the nearest three-six months.

Households can reduce their expenses as the growing oil prices limit their purchasing capacity.

Besides analysts pay attention to that because of growing mortgage lending prices and increasing housing cost, the boom in the market of the real estate, proceeding within the last five years, goes down.

 

Let's notice that the oil prices went down after information that Saudi Arabia is going to increase production if it is required.

It was also said that OPEC at the meeting at the end of January would declare about preservation of current production volumes . Nevertheless, market’s former fears about a situation in Nigeria and Iran have not disappeared and can lead renewal of growth in the near future.

As a result March futures for oil WTI have fallen $0.38 up to $68.10 for barrel. And today oil has traded in area of $67.70.

 

Let's also notice that, according to last forecasts of investment bank Goldman Sachs, the average oil prices in the USA will grow $4.50 up to $68.50 for barrel in 2006 because of risks in Iran and Nigeria before the beginning of the fourth quarter.

The oil prices will most likely achieve $70 for barrel in any case because of a great demand, analysts of bank consider.

 

"Though we expect, that the prices for American light oil WTI will be above $70 for barrel in the fourth quarter because of a great demand, intense situation in Nigeria and renewal of the nuclear program in Iran can push a rise in prices up to $70 much earlier", - is said in Goldman Sachs forecast.

 

And the investors’ anxiety was strengthened additionally by New York FRB Head Timothy Gatener who has declared that huge deficiency of the current balance of payments of the USA threatens the world economics.

External deficiencies should be reduced, he has pointed out, having added that while it is not clear how it will affect the financial markets. Gatener has noted that deficiency of the current balance of payments of the USA can reach 7 %.

The further growth will lead to negative consequences.

"The more deficiency the higher risks and the greater correction is required", - he has noted.

And Jefferies and Co. expert Arthur Hogan said: "We should conceive the last week event.

 

As a result Dow-Jones index of New York stock exchange has grown 21.38 points and was closed at a level 10688.77. NASDAQ index has come up 0.77 point and is at a level 2248.47. S&P 500 index has risen 2.33 points and is at a level 1263.82.

Profitability of the US state obligations for 30 years has gone up 0.001 in comparison with the previous closing and makes 4.532.

 

We recommend keeping opened earlier purchases of Dow-Jones index futures. All our previous recommendations also hold good.


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