As it usually happens the market quickly gets tired of monotony of a predominating theme. So, the theme of fast end of a cycle of FRS rates increase by the experts’ estimations, being one of factors of pressure upon the American currency rate, also gives way to the last political events. The market’s participants recollect less often that after the next FOMC meeting and the last one under Greenspan’s direction, planned on January, 31st, the spread between basic interest rates of ECB and the US FRS can already reach 2,25 %.

Investors are more interested in FED further steps. We shall remind that the last statements of FRS representatives agreed with one - if inflationary pressure strengthens, increases will be several, probably, two- three, but all will depend on current economic indicators.

However the majority of analysts suppose that the termination of a cycle of toughening of a monetary policy is already close. By estimations of the majority of experts the neutral rate is in area of 4.5 %-5 %. Only some economists do not exclude that up to the end of 2006 the rate can achieve a level of 5.5 %.

As a result focus of investors’ attention begins to move again to geopolitics: aggravation between Iran and the USA as in 2002-03 it was with Iraq, can cause the next global rise in oil prices. Besides periodic statements of representatives of various central banks about transfer of currency reserves from dollar in favor of other liquid currencies give an additional nervousness to the market’s participants.

 It is necessary to note - if in a current dollar exchange rate the market has considered the increase on 0,25 % at forthcoming FRS meeting on January, 31st, probable unexpected statements of FOMC members and furthermore, geopolitical events cannot be considered practically.

The majority of experts are sure that one of determining factors for the further vector of a dollar exchange rate movement becomes FOMC final statement: if the market players see in it confirmation of several increases "greenback" will get a new positive impulse and will grow.

 On the other hand, representatives of Iran’s ruling elite, using the developed situation skillfully, frighten the world community of the future rise in oil prices or hint that Iran is going to withdraw its reserves from the European banks.

 It gives a rise to the certain nervousness in the market, and leads to that large players, having closed their trading books, expecting clearing of a situation, prefer to remain above the fight.

We shall remind that the last week some dealers already assumed that if the Iranian central bank sold its dollars it could address to another central bank to buy euro and other liquid currencies.

Analysts recollect this, trying to find the reason explaining surprising stability of a zone from $1.2000 up to $1.2050 during last two weeks. Many experts do not exclude that last messages on official euro demand can have the Iranian origin.

Bank of Iran Head Ebragim Sheibani added fuel to the fire, having declared that Iran started to transfer its capital on the foreign accounts. Sheibani has noted that the Central Bank transfers money there where it is more expedient.

According to dealers in the market there are rumors that Iran can buy from 5 up to 10 billion euro.

It is also necessary to notice that the dollar has practically ignored positive Friday data. We shall remind that the consumer sentiment index in the USA, calculated by University of Michigan for the January, 2006, grew up to 93.4 points from 91.5 points in December. And experts predicted value of a January index at a level 92.5 points.

 And the component of the index, reflecting current conditions, rose up to 112.0 points in January from 109.1 points in December.

Thus the component of expectations raised up to 81.5 points from 80.2 points in December.

As a result we still suggest keeping the postponed sell order on dollar/franc from a level 1.2720. The first purposes of this reduction can become levels at 1.2450, and then, in case of their overcoming - 1.2250. Fundamental pressure upon a rate will amplify with new hawkish statements of the western leaders towards Islamic Republic of Iran that became obvious the last week on a background of Candolisa Rice’s and Jacque Chirac’s statements.

 However it is necessary to notice that the expected reduction of a rate should be perceived as a correction on a background of forthcoming growth of pair.

The dollar/Canadian can begin "shorting" already at recoil to a level 1.1560, and in case of the further growth of pair there is possible strengthening of short positions at the levels close to 1.1615.

The further rise of oil quotations on a background of escalation of intensity around the nuclear program of Iran will only accelerate decrease of a rate.