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Forex · News · Forex Forecasts

NEWS / Forex Forecasts

USDCHF, USDCAD End of week will be demonstrative for further trade...

18:00 01/20/2006

So, it seems that large players have not yet drawn up their trading plans. We shall remind that yesterday there were published ambiguous economic data in the USA for the market’s participants.

However these publications have been put behind when Al Jazeera telechannel showed the episode where Ben Laden warned about a number of new terrorist attacks to the USA.

 

Right after this the oil prices proceeded growing because of the investors’ fears concerningf realization of Ben Laden’s threats.

Let's notice that the former factors such as destabilization in Nigeria and the difficult political situation around the Iranian nuclear program, have also held good, push to rise of oil quotations.

As a result February futures for WTI oil rose on $1.10 up to $66.83 per a barrel yesterday.

 

Even the last data on oil stocks in the USA for the last week could not constrain consumer moods of oil traders.

Let's remind that on forecasts of reduction on 400.000 barrels, oil stocks in the USA raised 2.7 million bar.up to 321.4 million bar. the last week

 

Let's also remind that the market has practically ignored the jobless claims in the USA for a week on January, 14th which made 271 000, at the forecast 320 000.

Thus the previous value has been revised from 309000 up to 307000.

As a result the indicator has appeared not only much better than the expected level, but also is minimal since April, 2000.

Thus the average number of new jobless claims decreased up to 299 000 from 311 000 for four weeks by January, 14th.

On preliminary data this indicator has made 311.500 claims. This indicator has also been the lowest for more than five years.

The total number of jobless in the USA decreased up to 2,534 million for January, 7th from 2,692 million.

Experts point out that the companies go on creating new workplaces that allow waiting for price pressure from salaries and for increase in consumer expenses.

 

Yesterday another important indicator, on the contrary, was considerably below the forecasts. So, Philadelphia Fed Index sharply dipped up to 3.3 points in January, 2006 from 10.9 points in December, 2005.

Let's remind that on experts’ forecasts Philadelphia Fed Index could have grown up to 12.6 points in January.

Thus the new orders index, being the indicator of the future growth, has risen up to 11.1 points from 5.8 points in December, the price index reduced to 44.9 points from 47.1 points.

The employment index has raised to 11.7 points from 7.9 points. Philadelphia Fed Indexes are considered as one of the basic indicators of a condition in the industrial branch. 1/6 of economic activities of the USA fall to its share.

 

The indicators of building sector of the US economy have also been below the forecasts. We shall remind that the New Home Sales in the USA made 1.933 million for December, at the forecast 2.080 million. And the previous value has been revised from 2.123 up to 2.121 million

And the building permits in the USA made up 2.068 million for December, at the forecast 2.100 million and the previous value 2.163 million.

As a result both indicators have appeared below the forecasts, and the New Home Sales has reached a minimum level for almost a year.

 

As a result our former recommendations concerning sales of dollar/franc pair in case of its overcoming support on 1.2720 hold good.

The situation with dollar/Canadian is less predictable because of its correlation with the market of energy carriers.

While we keep a waiting position.

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