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Forex · News · Forex Forecasts

NEWS / Forex Forecasts

Market’s daily review

11:47 01/19/2006

At tenders on Wednesday, rates of the basic currencies made fluctuations in limited, but quite wide ranges.

So, the euro/dollar rate traded within the limits of 1.2070-1.2155.

The pound/dollar rate was in a range of 1.7584-1.7702.

 

Oil prices have put pressure upon dollar. A rate of the American currency was also influenced negatively by yesterday's data over the USA, which was not the best, as expected.

 

Contrary to forecasts, rates of CPI growth have decreased both in monthly, and in annual calculation, thus the net indictor, which does not consider the prices for food stuffs and energy, has remained at a former level.

 

According to the report of the Department of Labor of the USA, published today, in December consumer price inflation unexpectedly dipped on 0.1 % as the prices for energy continued to depart from September peaks. The economists expected that CPI would grow 0.2 %. This index reduction was the second in a row - in November it also fell on 0.6 %.

Except for the prices for food stuffs and energy carriers the index has grown on 0.2 %  m/m. Experts expected growth on 0.2 % m/m, and the core consumer price index was expected at a level of 0.1 % m/m.

In December CPI rose on 3.4 % y\y, the core consumer price index - on 2.2 % as well as in 2004.

For the whole 2005 the index raised 3.4 %, that does not differ strongly from the indicator of 2004 - 3.3% y/y, but it became the maximal growth since 2000?.

So sudden dip of inflation at the end of year can make FRS to finish a cycle of monetary toughening after 14-th rate increase on January, 31st. While the markets expect the end of toughening after one more increase in March.

Data on influx of foreign investments have not also been so good as it was desired.

As the US Exchequer have informed in November the capital flows to the country reduced up to $89.1 billion against an October indicator, which has been revised up to $104.2 billion. Reduction has been caused first of all by decrease of volumes of purchases by foreign state institutions of exchequer bonds and promissory notes, and also the governmental bonds.

According to the US FRS economic review - Beige Book, published yesterday, by the end of year the price pressure upon raw material became less intensive, and economic growth proceeded in all regions of the country, the level of retail sales was stable as a whole.

In its turn, inflation data in Europe, which improved the probability of interest rate, increase this year, have supported a rate of euro.

Industrial production in Eurozone went up 1.3 % m/m in November to the last year + 2.6 %.

Experts forecasted production rise on 0.9 % for a month and 1.9 % y\y.

In October production fell 0.7 % m/m, but rose 0.2 % y\y. Earlier it was informed on reduction on 0.8 % for a month and growth on 0.1 % for a year.

The indicator has exceeded the forecast and has reached a maximum level since October, 2003.

The balance on current accounts in France showed deficiency of 4.1 billion euro in November against 3.8 bln. revised for October according to the Ministry of Finance. Seasonably adjusted deficiency has made 26,8 billion euro for the first 11 months of 2005 against the same period a year ago.

On Wednesday IMF published the forecast on German economy for the nearest 2 years.

So, it is expected, that budgeted deficiency of the country will make 3.6 % in 2006 and 2.5 % - 3 % in 2007.

The forecast of gross domestic product has been raised up to +1.5 % for the current year from the previous estimation of +1.2 %, and in 2007 the growth of economy should make +0.75 % - 1.25 %.

Inflation of consumer prices can make 1.9 % this year and 2.5 % the next year.

The pound rose slightly after the report on a rise in housing prices.

The housing prices have doubled growth up to 8 % for the last 3 months till December against +4 % for three months by November.

However the British currency decreased on Wednesday under pressure of labor market data. Easing of the given economic sector proceeds, the number of jobless grows.

Change of number of jobless in the UK made +7200 for December at the forecast +7300.

 

Unemployment in the UK made 2.9 % for December that is in line with the forecast and the previous value.

The index of average earnings in the UK has made +3.4 % for a year for three months including November.

The UK data have been according to the forecasts.
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