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Forex · News · Forex Forecasts

NEWS / Forex Forecasts

USDCHF, USDCAD Basic exchange rates continue trade in ranges...

17:24 01/19/2006

So, on a background of publications of yesterday's significant data on the first world economics, investors are interested in a polemic of high-ranking officials – the representatives of the US FRS and ECB.

 

Let's remind that volume of the American assets purchases by foreign investors made 89.1 billion dollars in November, at the previous value 104.2 billion dollars.

Though the total value has been below the previous one, however this figure shows stability of foreign investments, and surpasses the US trade deficit balance.

 

Thus, according to yesterday's data, the consumer prices in the USA fell in December. We shall remind that the consumer price index in the USA decreased 0.1 % m\m in December of the last year.

Except for the prices for foodstuffs and energy carriers the core CPI has risen 0.2 % m/m.

Experts expected growth on 0.2 % m/m, and the core CPI was expected at a level of 0.1 % m/m.

And the CPI rose 3.4 % y\y in December and core CPI - 2.2 %.

 

The US FRS economic review “Beige Book” was rather contradictory for analysts. It has shown that by the end of year the price pressure upon raw material became less intensive, and economic growth proceeds in all regions of the country. Thus the level of retail sales is stable as a whole.

"The production costs which are not connected with remuneration of labor, have continued to disturb the companies, in particular in sector of a manufacturing industry ", - it is noted in the Beige book.

Thus retail prices and the producer prices have grown slightly or have remained at a stable level.

 

As a result, though economic activity in the USA has amplified the last weeks of the last year, however the increasing prices for energy carriers disturb manufacturers.

Many FRS regional representations have informed on depression of growth or drop in oil prices from high levels. Moreover some regions have informed on signs of employment growth.

 

Let's also remind that as the president of Richmond Federal Reserve Bank Laker declared yesterday FRS would lift the rate in January, and already then would think over the pause in a long cycle of rates increase.

 

"The minutes of the meeting from December, 13th indicates that some increases are left in reserve. I am sure that there will be one more increase", - Jeffrey Laker told yesterday.

"Whenever the cycle of increases finishes, it is not necessary to expect that short-term interest rates will remain constant for a long time," he emphasized.

 

And a FRS Board member Susan S. Bies noticed yesterday that end of a rates growth cycle would be pointed out by economic data. She also did not exclude that the termination of a cycle of increases would be in the nearest future.

 

On this background euro rate has been unexpected supported by the message that ECB representative Bini Smagi stands up for the further increase of a level of interest rates in Europe (12).

However then Bini Smagi backtracked on his words that influenced negatively on a rate of euro.

 

Today it is necessary to pay attention to a series of the important economic indicators. So, at 13:30 GMT there will be published:

 

- Jobless Claims in the USA for a week by 14.01. The forecast 320K, the previous value 309K;

- New Home Sales in millions in the USA for December. The forecast 2.080, the previous value 2.123;

- Building Permits in millions in the USA for December. The forecast 2.100, the previous value 2.163.

 

And later, at 17:00 GMT, the publication of Philadelphia Fed Index in the USA for January is planned. The forecast 14.0, the previous value 12.6.

 

We suggest to follow the recommendations stated before: to open short-term dollar/franc sales in case of steady overcoming a support level of 1.2720.

Let's remind that falling of this level will lead to deep correction of a rate, with the first purpose at 1.2450, and the second - at 1.2250.

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