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Forex · News · Forex Forecasts

NEWS / Forex Forecasts

Market’s daily review

11:47 01/17/2006

On Monday, because of a holiday in the USA, investors’ activity in Forex market was quite low.

The American currency, as it was supposed, has become stronger against the basic currencies.

The Japanese yen to dollar has decreased in connection with a rise in oil prices. A significant falling of Japanese basic stock index Nikkei has also put pressure upon the yen rate.

The British pound also dipped against dollar yesterday. A lower value of the producer price index of the UK put pressure upon a rate of pound.

In its turn falling of the pound/dollar rate and rise of the dollar/yen rate put pressure upon the euro rate against dollar.

 

However Friday ECB President Trichet’s statement that the bank would watch closely the inflation, supports the euro rate.

In his opinion there are signs of probable increase of rates of economic growth of a region, and thereof, inflation can grow.

 

The basic economic events of this week become industrial outputs on Tuesday, December CPI and TICS data capital inflows on Wednesday, and also University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index on Friday.

 

In Europe there will be the inflation report in the center of attention on Thursday, which, on forecasts, will confirm ECB fears about inflationary pressure in Eurozone.

 

This week there also will be published data over the UK, in particular data on CPI, on a labor market and retail sales.

These data become important one concerning the forecast on interest rates of the UK.

 

The data over Great Britain, published on Monday, showed that the output prices decreased the third month successively in December.

The prices in industrial sector keep down despite the growing input prices, it means that the competition still does not allow producers to put up consumer prices.

 

According to the data of the Bureau of National Statistics of Great Britain the “input” producer price index rose 0.9 % in December in monthly calculation and 17.2 % year over year, this is a record value since 1991.

Growth on 0.7 % in monthly calculation and 15.3 % year over year was predicted.

 

“Output” producer price index in Great Britain dipped unexpectedly on 0.2 % for December

against expected growth on 0.1 % and 2.8 % accordingly.

The previous value of the given index made up -0.2 % for a month, +2.3 % y/y.

 

For December “output” producer price index except for the prices for foodstuffs, alcohol, tobacco products and fuel in the UK made +0.1 % for a month, +1.6 % for a year at the forecast of +0.1 % for a month, +1.5 % for a year.

The previous value of the given index made up +0.1 % for a month, +1.3 % y/y.

 

The survey of business leaders by Bank of France has shown that gross domestic product in France climbed 0.5 % in the fourth quarter against growth value of 0.6 % earlier.

The average annual growth for 2005 made up 1.6 %. The indicator of a business climate - 101 in December against 106 in November.

 

The bank has declared that activity in industrial sector increased in December, however the capacity utilization decreased.

Forecasts on activity for forthcoming months are favorable.

 

The final value of a consumer price index in Italy made 0.0 % for a month, +2.0 % for a year for November that is in line with the previous value.

The final value of the harmonized consumer price index in Italy made +2.0 % for a year for November at the previous value +1.9 % y/y.

 

Seasonably adjusted industrial production in Japan came up 1.5 % in November to October, the parameter has been above the predicted 1.4 %, the Ministry of Economics, Trade, and Industry informed.

Supplies in November increased on 0.6 % against October while initially growth made 0.3 %.

Inventories have raised 1.5 %, as well as at the first reading.

Capacity utilization of the Japanese factories remained at a mark of 92.0, not having changed against the last month.

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