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Forex · News · Forex Forecasts

NEWS / Forex Forecasts

Market’s daily review

11:47 01/16/2006

At Friday tenders, after an issue of unexpectedly weak PPI and Retail sales reports of the USA the American currency weakened against euro.

The retail sales level and producer price index, except for sharply changing components, have been below the levels forecasted by economists.

Data of reports have strengthened the market in opinion that FRS will finish a cycle of toughening soon.

 

As the Department of Commerce of the USA has informed retail sales climbed on seasonally adjusted 0.7 % in December on a background of increase in sales volumes of cars and petroleum.

Except for a gain on 2.6 % of car sale sales retails rose only on 0.2 % in December though on the average analysts expected growth on 0.4 %.

The indicators for October and November have been revised to increase on 0.4 % in general. Considering this revision, the December indicator has been a little bit stronger than the growth expected by economists on 0.9 %.

On results of the 4-th quarter sales volumes increased on 0.6 %. Year over year December sales have exceeded on 6.3 % a similar parameter for December, 2004

The Producer Price Index in the USA rose on 0.9% m/m in December. Thus experts predicted increase on 0.4 %. In November producer prices fell on 0.7 % that was the promptest drop since April, 2003. The gain of the producer prices in December in comparison with the same month of the last year made 5.4 % against 4.9 % expected by experts.

The main cause of inflation in industrial sector was increase of the fuel prices, thus expenses except for cost of energy carriers and foodstuffs have come up less considerably than it was expected.

The producer price index has raised only on 0.1 % vs. the analysts’ forecast of +0.2 %. A month earlier the given indicator rose also on 0.1 %. On results of 2005 the increase of the indicator made up 1.7 % that is below 2.3 % recorded in 2004. Analysts forecasted a gain of the prices on 1.9 %.

According to Insee the French consumer price index rose on 0.1 %  m/m in December. The data have been better than the analysts’ forecasts according to which inflation should have made 0.2%.

In November consumer prices decreased on 0.2 % in comparison with October.

Thus in comparison with December, 2004year over year inflation slowed down a little up to 1.5 % - that has appeared below than the predicted level of 1.6 %.

A month earlier this indicator was at 1.6 %.

 

For December the wholesale price index in Germany made 0.0 % for a month, +2.4 % for a year against the previous value -0.6 % for a month, +2.2 % year over year.

 

For the third quarter the refined value of GDP index in Europe (12) made up +0.6 % for a quarter, +1.6 % for a year that is in line with the forecast and the previous value.
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