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Forex · News · Forex Forecasts

NEWS / Forex Forecasts

USDCHF, USDCAD At support of yesterday's news dollar has strengthened, however remaining within the limits of a trading range

18:45 01/13/2006

So, almost all yesterday's events wee “under the badge of the dollar”. However, let’s do everything step by step:

 

On a background of forecast of trade balance’s red ink reduction only up to $66.1 billion, according to yesterday's release, the US trade balance deficiency dropped to $64.2 billion in November.

Besides on the refined data, in October deficiency made $68.1 billion instead of $68.9 billion as it was informed earlier.

As a result the indicator has been not only noticeably better than the expected level, but its previous value has also been revised to improvement.

Experts assume that, despite November import cutting after the oil prices fell from peaks, on results of 2005 the foreign trade deficiency will most likely achieve a historical top, making up more than $700 billion.

And, according to analysts’ forecasts and the American consumers’ great demand of goods from such countries as China and Mexico, deficiency growth can proceed in 2006.

Thus import price index to the USA made-0.2 % for December,the previous value -1.8 %. The export price index to the USA made +0.1 % for December, the previous value -0.7 %.

 

Among the reasons of deficiency growth Global Insight Inc. experts say that "the US economy develops more quickly than in Europe or Japan, and it is the main driver of deficiency growth".

 

Other factor, which has also supported a dollar exchange rate against the European currencies, was ECB President Trichet’s statements, concerning prospects of interest rate changes in Europe (12).

The market’s participants expected more hawkish statements, have been disappointed a little bit. Trichet has also noticed that on a background of risk of a rise in prices, the probability of slowdown of European economic growth is still kept.

"I have told that risks for economic growth exist, however they are little", - ECB President has declared.

Let's remind that as it was expected, ECB has left the rate without change at a level of 2.25 % per annum. The last time ECB changed the rate’s level on December, 1st, 2005 when it was increased up to 2.25 % from 2 % per annum.

 

However, despite yesterday Trichet’s statements many experts do not exclude that by June of this year the rate’s level can be raised up to 2.75 %.

So, CIC Maerkets strategist from Valery Planiol notices that "ECB will probably prepare  the market for the rate increase. Economic activity raises and ECB is aimed at taking the rate to a neutral level".

"I think that Trichet’s rhetoric was tough", - Phillis Papadavid has told, the economist on the Eurozone at Lehman Brothers. "However people expected for more - a hint on the rate increase in February, therefore there was a disappointment", - she added.

"Trichet seemed more peaceful than usually and it put those, who are for euro rate, on their guard, forcing them to hold a waiting position, - the currency tenders expert at BNP Paribs SA Nile Johns considers. – We think the euro will become cheaper, as it means that the rate will be raised less considerably".

 

Other factor to support of the American currency rate was jobless claims data in the USA the last week which increased on 17.000 up to 309.000.

Thus, on the refined data, a week earlier jobless claims made up 292.000.

Let's remind that experts predicted increase on 24.000 - up to 315.000 from the earlier declared level of 291.000.

And the number of continuing to be on dole increased up to 2.702 million from the revised 2.69 million a week earlier.

"Jobless claims are in line with good growth of nonfarm payrolls", - Dynes Poppies from Barclays Capital notices.

 

And the US Federal budget made +11.0 billion dollars for December, at the forecast -2.0 billion dollars and the previous value -83.1 billion dollars.

 

The publication of the whole block of the important economic information is planned today. So at 13:30 GMT there will be released:

 

- Producer price index in the USA for December. The forecast  +0.4 % for a month, the previous value -0.7 % for a month;

- Producer price index except for the prices for foodstuffs and energy carriers in the USA for December. The forecast  +0.2 % for a month, the previous value +0.1 % for a month;

- Retail sales index in the USA for December. The forecast +0.9 %, the previous value +0.3 %;

- Retail sales index except for car sales in the USA for December. The forecast +0.4 %, the previous value -0.3 %.

 

Later, at 14:00 GMT there will be known inventories index in the USA for November. The forecast  +0.4 %, the previous value  +0.3 %;

And at 14:45 GMT - preliminary value of University of Michigan Sentiment Index in the USA for January. The forecast 84.0, the previous value 91.5.

 

Let's remind, that on Monday the American market is closed because of the forthcoming of Martin Luther King’s Day, therefore today’s movements finishing the week session, can be very significant on a background of small volumes.

Let's notice that despite the general yesterday's positive, the dollar could not take significant advantages from it, having become stronger only within the limits of a trading range.

As a result we recommend, keeping a waiting position to expect for reliable trading signals.

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