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Forex · News · Forex Forecasts

NEWS / Forex Forecasts

USDCHF, USDCAD Focus of attention of market’s participants is on Asian currencies now...

17:45 01/09/2006

So, data of Friday labor market review of the USA for December, having been so varied, put the market’s participants in a difficult situation.

 

Let's remind that nonfarm payrolls in the USA made up +108000for December at the forecast +200000. Thus the previous value has been revised from +215000 to +305000.

The indicator has been considerably below the forecast, however its previous value has been revised to a maximum level for the last 20 months.

As a result unexpectedly low value of a current indicator has been a little bit recouped by revision to increase of the previous value.

 

And unemployment in the USA made up 4.9 % for December, at the forecast 5.0 % and the previous value 5.0 %.

Thus an index of average hourly earnings in the USA made +0.3 % for December, at the forecast +0.2 % and the previous value  +0.1 %.

 

Experts, assuming with good reason that data of this review will be considered in the FRS nearest decisions, found themselves in a trouble.

 

It is remarkable that today on a background of the day off in Japan because of which the financial market in the country is closed, yen purchases was proceeded, but then as some dealers say the pair has been sustained by some Asian Central Banks.

Let's remind that from the end of the last week focus of attention of the market’s participants has been directed to yen and the Asian currencies after the American investment bank published the recommendation to buy currencies of this region, referring that China would allow yuan to strengthen in 2006 for greater flexibility of a currency system.

 

As a result falling of euro/yen pair became serious test for stability of euro/dollar.

Let's also notice that the certain nervousness in the market have been brought by scanty information of the Asian central banks about interference in dollar purchases against the currencies that ended with fast dollar/yen growth with overcoming a level of 116.00 to maximum at 116.28.

 

Let's also notice that today last data can support euro rate. We shall remind that trade balance of Germany made +13.3 billion euro for November, at the previous value +12.2 billion euro.

And the balance of payments in Germany made up +8.1 billion euro for November. And the previous value has been revised from +6.4 to +6.2 billion euro.

And for December a housing price index of Halifax company in the UK made +1.0 % for a month, +5.1 % for a year, at the previous value of +1.2 % for a month, +4.5 % for a year.

As a result data in Germany and the UK having been at enough high levels, can support rates of euro and the British pound.

 

Besides today it is necessary to pay attention to the publication of consumer credit data in the USA for November at 20:00 GMT. We shall remind, that the forecast +4.80 billion dollars, the previous value-7.20 billion dollars.

 

However, despite it, we recommend to remain outside of the market.

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