USmarket It is recommended to keep open purchases of futures for Dow-Jones index
11:54 01/04/2006

On a background of the published FOMC report from December, 13th which points out an opportunity of end of a cycle of rates increase in the near future, key stock indexes grow promptly.

 

  Let's notice that now the majority of FOMC members suppose that it is required some increase of the rate for inflation to be under the control.

  "The quantity of steps within the limits of toughening a monetary and credit policy needed in future, will not be numerous, - the text of FOMC report says. According to the report members of the meeting are pleased with strong economic growth and favorable inflation signs as fears of short-term inflationary tendencies have considerably decreased.

  The experts commenting on the text of the report divided in understanding of some moments of the document. Disagreements have been caused by the words that the Committee understands the formulation "will be not numerous".

 

  It is also necessary to notice that earlier FOMC instruction contained two key phrases: accommodative and measured.

  And, the word accommodative, describing stimulating exchange currency politics, was removed from the text of the instruction on December, 13th.

  And the second expression is till present there now.

  As a result the full text of the report of FOMC meeting throws light on this situation. So, measured is applied in a context of the promise to continue to raise rates at the moderate pace, i.e. on 25 basic points.

  Thus some Committee members considered that measured should be removed from the text of the instruction as well as accommodative, however, measured was kept to prevent misunderstanding of the instruction.

  Committee members have considered correct to finish the text with the remark that monetary strategy depends on economic prospects now.

 

  However, some analysts say that FOMC minutes do not change ideas concerning the nearest prospects of monetary strategy and consequently rates will go on increasing.

  So, HSBC economist Yan Morris considers that the rate level of 4.75 % is optimum for peak in a cycle. However, he says that if unemployment decreases to 4.8 % the rates will raise further. In his opinion, in the first half of the New Year basic inflation will grow, and in second half of the year - will decrease.

 

  Nevertheless, the second factor, having also strong influence on trade on Wall Street, is a situation in the fuel market.

  Let's remind that the latest news give investors’ concern. So, the oil prices try to fix above a psychological level of $60 per a barrel.

  Growth of oil quotations is promoted by the data, issued on the eve in the USA, about the unexpected reduction of petroleum and distillates stocks the last week.

  Let's remind that as EIA informed on Thursday oil stocks in the USA grew on 100.000 barrels up to 322.6 million barrels for a week ended on December, 23rd, 2005, whereas petroleum stocks reduced on 1.2 barrels to 202.9 million barrels, and distillates stocks decreased on 900.000 barrels to 126.8 million barrels.

  As a result February contracts on the American light oil have risen in price on 46 cents up to $60.28 per a barrel after growth on $1.66 the previous session.

 

  As a result we recommend to keep purchases of futures for Dow-Jones index, opened from a level of 10690, according to our last recommendations. We shall remind that the first purpose of growth will become levels 11170 after its achievement we do not exclude some descending correction of Dow index.

  While we advise to hold the given position till achievement of the mentioned purpose.


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