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Forex · News · Forex Forecasts

NEWS / Forex Forecasts

USDCHF, USDCAD Sharp movements of exchange rates in response to publication of data - is rather characteristic of dull markets...

15:16 12/29/2005

So, on a background of the lowest activity of the market the players’ reaction to the publication of the consumer confidence index in the USA, calculated by Conference Board, was showed rather considerably - the dollar exchange rate has hiked against the basic currencies at the American session.
Low liquidity in the market Forex promotes sharper change of exchange rates.

Let\'s remind that the consumer confidence index in the USA rose up to 103.6 points in December from the revised November indicator of 98.3 points.
Experts forecasted growth up to 105 points from November level of 98.9 points declared earlier.
Analysts suppose that the main reasons, which have inspired consumers during a season of holiday purchases, were reduction of petroleum prices and improvement of a situation on a labor market.
Din Maky at Barclays Capital says: \"Consumers receive benefit from reduction of retail cost of petroleum. The labor market also improves or, at least, has come to a norm after the hurricanes\".

Thus the majority of economists notice that a principal cause of yesterday growth was repatriation of capital flows. We shall remind that yesterday trade was conducted for last currency date this year.
Let\'s notice that many American companies aim at returning their profits to the USA till the end of the year as in that case the taxation system is a little bit softer.

Today in focus of attention of the market’s participants will be data on jobless claims in the USA for a week by 24.12 (at 13:30 GMT), and also data on sales of houses constructed before for November and help-wanted index (at 15:00 GMT).

So, the forecast of jobless claims is equal to 319000, and the previous value was equal to 318000.
Sales of houses constructed before in millions in the USA, on experts’ estimations, will make up 7.05 for November, and the previous value was equal to 7.09.
Thus analysts forecast that the help-wanted index in the USA will make 39 for November. We shall remind that the previous value was equal to 38.

Small market activity can lead to sharp changes of exchange rates in case of the publication of unexpected values of these data.
Therefore considering high trading risks we still recommend to keep a temporizing policy.

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