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Forex · News · Forex ForecastsNEWS / Forex Forecasts |
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Dollar is recovering after the Friday knockout…Rate dynamics and recommendations on USD-CHF and USD-CAD.
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08:17 08/09/2004
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Dollar is recovering after the Friday knockout…Rate dynamics and recommendations on USD-CHF and USD-CAD.
Dollar is recovering after the Friday knockout…Rate dynamics and recommendations on USD-CHF and USD-CAD.
Friday review of the U.S. Department of Trade can be compared to the exploded bomb effect. Only real explosion somewhere in New York or Washington, D.C. downtown can be compared to it. Excluding agriculture, employment rose by 32000 new jobs in July. Let us remind that economists had looked for 220000 gain, however, prior to the release, there appeared rumors that the value might not rise higher than 100000.
The second unpleasant thing about the release was revision of June figures from 112000 to 7800. As a result, the expected FRS rate hike to 2% by the end of the year is under a question now, as well as tomorrow’s expected rate target increase. The FRS meeting is due tomorrow, August 10, and the market thought interest rate hike was an inevitable event.
Even the overall unemployment figures, which went down to record 5,5% last month – the lowest since October 2001, could not hide the disappointment. Economists forecasted that unemployment would not change and would remain on June’s level of 5,6%. So, number of people, employed in production, increased by 10 000 in July, thus coinciding with the forecast. Number of people, employed in the sphere of services, rose by 14 000, which is the lowest increase since last August. This year, only 1,2million new jobs were created in American economy, reports the U.S. Department of Labor. That is still far to promised by president Bush 2,6 million new jobs.
The given figures and the fact that U.S. economic growth has been slowing down in the third quarter greatly concern large investors.
Besides, don’t forget that the U.S. Administration’s “thrillers” make the players anxious. Thus, Francis Townsend, Deputy National Security Advisor, says al-Qaeda is preparing a new series of militant attacks on the territory of the United States. The Department warns that this time the threat is serious and real. Fox News report that the probable militant attacks of al-Qaeda might even be of a greater destroying power than that on September 11, 2001.
Do not forget that crude rate set another record, having reached $45.00 a barrel yesterday in New York. Oil price has been rising for the straight sixth day. Traditionally, it is thought that rise in prices for oil put powerful pressure on the economies of the leading industrial countries. That means that the given fact will negatively affect the rate of the dollar, as well as the rate of Japanese yen.
Recommendations: as a result of Friday fall of the dollar rate, USD-CHF quotations came close to the earlier indicated key level of 1,2450. The fall of that very support will predetermine further dynamics of the pair. So far, as there are no reliable signals of trend change and the fundamental background is stable, buying dollars will be untimely and might cause losses.
The situation is similar with USD-CAD pair. Only steady rise higher than 1,3230 and further to 1,3350 might change the sentiments in favor of American currency.
We recommend staying out of the market until yesterday meeting of the FRS U.S.
Recommendations: as a result of Friday fall of the dollar rate, USD-CHF quotations came close to the earlier indicated key level of 1,2450. The fall of that very support will predetermine further dynamics of the pair. So far, as there are no reliable signals of trend change and the fundamental background is stable, buying dollars will be untimely and might cause losses.
The situation is similar with USD-CAD pair. Only steady rise higher than 1,3230 and further to 1,3350 might change the sentiments in favor of American currency.
We recommend staying out of the market until yesterday meeting of the FRS U.S.
The forecast was created by trans1.
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