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Forex · News · Forex ForecastsNEWS / Forex Forecasts |
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US market …Waiting for Friday Labor market release…August 05, 2004
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08:16 08/09/2004
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US market …Waiting for Friday Labor market release…August 05, 2004
Recent data contributed to raising base interest rate at the nearest FRS meeting due August 10, rather then assuming the opposite.
Let us remind that Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England decided to raise Repo rate 0,25% to 4,75%. That decision was forecasted by the majority of analysts and was not a surprise for the investors.
Industrial production in Britain unexpectedly reduced. In this turn, analysts say that we should not expect that the rate would be raised again by the end of this year.
Let us remind that industrial production index in Britain in July made up -0.3% per month, +0.5% per year (forecasted –0.1% per month, +0.8% per year, previous value equaled +0.5% per month, +1.3% per year). Manufacturing output in Britain in July came out –0.7% per month, +1,2% per year (forecasted 0.0% per month, +1,9% per year, previous value equaled +0.5% per month, +2.0% per year). Note that the value of the last index is the lowest in almost two years.
The decision of the European Central Bank was not surprising either. The Board of Governors of ECB made a decision to leave interest rates in Europe (12) unchanged. The rate of refinancing remained on the level of 2%. That was an expected outcome.
But the most important event for American stock exchange markets was jobless claims in the U.S. in the week ended July 31. The index came out 336000, whereas forecasted 340000, previous value equaled 347000. The given news increased the possibility of raising interest rate target at the FRS meeting due August 10 and was a negative for stock exchange indexes.
Recommendations: base stock exchange indexes continued their downtrend correction. As s result, Dow Jones index reached its recent day support at 9910 and S and P’s 500 almost reached 1078.
Now, while staying out of the market, we recommend being ready for buying futures on the indicated indexes (on Friday) , in case non-farm payrolls come out negative.
Recommendations: base stock exchange indexes continued their downtrend correction. As s result, Dow Jones index reached its recent day support at 9910 and S and P’s 500 almost reached 1078.
Now, while staying out of the market, we recommend being ready for buying futures on the indicated indexes (on Friday) , in case non-farm payrolls come out negative.
The forecast was created by trans1.
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