|
 |
Forex · News · Forex ForecastsNEWS / Forex Forecasts |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Open positions right after the U.S. Labor market release…Rate dynamics and recommendations on USD-CHF and USD-CAD.
|
|
11:44 08/06/2004
|
|
Open positions right after the U.S. Labor market release…Rate dynamics and recommendations on USD-CHF and USD-CAD.
The intrigue around the U.S. Labor market review is getting more and more tense. Let us remind that the release of non-farm payrolls in the U.S. in July (forecasted +220000, previous value equaled +112000) and unemployment in the U.S. in July (forecasted 5.6%, previous value equaled 5,6%) are scheduled for 12:30 GMT today. Positive fundamentals of the last two months and the improved perspective for the employees, reflected in last week’s consumer confidence, made the majority if economists raise their forecasts on July non-farm payrolls. But, as employment component of ISM services index came out low, great number of market players got less optimistic about today’s data.
Even now, there appear forecasts that employment would rise only by 100 000. Such value might ruin dollar “bulls” and we might witness the long-awaited correction of EUR-USD to 1,2150, from where we expect long-term opening of dollar buying that is to be made by big players.
However, as we do not know the exact figures of today’s release, we would not predict market reaction. Absolute difference between the forecast the real values is to decide everything. The greater the difference is the stronger market reaction will be. Data, coinciding with the forecasts, or higher than forecasted, will push the dollar to further strengthening. The next strategy target - 1,1200 will make sense then.
The interesting thing is that it will happen even if conditions are negative for the dollar. To such conditions, we should attribute powerful oil price rise to a new record level and fall of American stock exchange indexes. Let us remind that yesterday, crude rate rose to $44.40 a barrel in New York. Oil prices have been rising the whole week.
Besides, permanent pressure on the rate of the dollar is put by
Geopolitical situation in the Near East.
Recommendations: today, we have an opportunity to open long-term long positions on the dollar (in case the outcome of Labor report is positive). Or, will have an opportunity to buy the dollar after significant downtrend correction. For example, USD-CHF rate might easily “go” down to 1,2600-30 and return up again.
As for USD-CAD rate, passing 1,3350 mark will be the determining factor of further long-term rise. It is here that players’ sentiment will start changing and rate buyers will get more numerous.
So, taking into account key importance of today’s data, we recommend opening positions only after the release is published.
Strategy targets of further dollar rise remain unchanged. The level of possible correction should not go higher than the indicated levels.
Recommendations: today, we have an opportunity to open long-term long positions on the dollar (in case the outcome of Labor report is positive). Or, will have an opportunity to buy the dollar after significant downtrend correction. For example, USD-CHF rate might easily “go” down to 1,2600-30 and return up again.
As for USD-CAD rate, passing 1,3350 mark will be the determining factor of further long-term rise. It is here that players’ sentiment will start changing and rate buyers will get more numerous.
So, taking into account key importance of today’s data, we recommend opening positions only after the release is published.
Strategy targets of further dollar rise remain unchanged. The level of possible correction should not go higher than the indicated levels.
The forecast was created by trans1.
|
|
 Printer-Friendly Version
 Send This Page
 Add to Favorites
 Comments
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
 |
|
|
|
|
|
