|
 |
Forex · News · Forex ForecastsNEWS / Forex Forecasts |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Let’s wait for the deepening of correction so that to opening regular dollar buying..Rate dynamics and recommendations on USD-CHF and USD-CAD.
|
|
07:27 08/04/2004
|
|
Let’s wait for the deepening of correction so that to opening regular dollar buying..Rate dynamics and recommendations on USD-CHF and USD-CAD.
Despite the fact that the dollar “bulls” forces have been prevailing recently, especially after the memorable speech of Alan Greenspan that he made before the U.S Congress, the last world geo-political news put the heaviest pressure on the dollar.
On Sunday, the threat level was raised to Code Orange (the last but one on a danger scale) due to al-Qaeda militant attacks concerns. The Secretary of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security Tom Ridge said they had information that the buildings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank in Washington, D.C., the New York Stock Exchange and New York’s Citibank, financial corporations in New Jersey were under the threat of militant attacks.
Besides, after new militant attacks in Iraq, oil price reached its absolute maximum of $ 44 (!) a barrel. Moreover, the second factor that makes oil prices rise is the possible bankruptcy of YUKOS. Despite the fact that the Russian government gave YUKOS more time to settle delinquent taxes, tax burden is too heavy for the oil company. Note that yesterday’s positive data released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), failed to inspire the dollar for further rise. ISM national factory index rose to 62 in July from 61.1 in June, which exceeded market forecasts. Index has been coming out higher than 60 points for the nine straight months and it is the maximal period in the last 20 years. However, resistance at 1,1980 – 1,200 on EUR-USD turned out to be very steady.
Yesterday’s fundamental data gave the Euro a chance to win back recent losses. Let us remind that Personal income index in the U.S. in June came out +0.2%, whereas forecasted +0.4% and the previous value of the index equaled +0.6%. Personal spending index made up –0.7% in the U.S. in June, forecasted 0.0%, previous value equaled +0.1%.
We are still expecting a stronger pullback from the current levels of resistance. Thus, we assume that EUR-USD might pullback to 1,2160, or to 1,2210-20, from where regular long-term buying of the dollar seem to be most optimal.
Recommendations: we are waiting for correction of USD-CHF rate to 1,2600, from where we might open careful buying with minimal number of lots.
Buying should be careful because we can not totally exclude rate fall to 1,2450, which will change market sentiments not in favor of American currency. Open regular long-term buying of the rate from that very level (1,2450).
The level of 1,3140-50 is the key support for USD-CAD rate. Giving that level up will “bury” hopes for the rehabilitation of the dollar.
Recommendations: we are waiting for correction of USD-CHF rate to 1,2600, from where we might open careful buying with minimal number of lots.
Buying should be careful because we can not totally exclude rate fall to 1,2450, which will change market sentiments not in favor of American currency. Open regular long-term buying of the rate from that very level (1,2450).
The level of 1,3140-50 is the key support for USD-CAD rate. Giving that level up will “bury” hopes for the rehabilitation of the dollar.
The forecast was created by trans1.
|
|
 Printer-Friendly Version
 Send This Page
 Add to Favorites
 Comments
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
 |
|
|
|
|
|
