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Forex · News · Forex ForecastsNEWS / Forex Forecasts |
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Make trade decisions after the key release is published…Rate dynamics and recommendations on USD-CHF and USD-CAD.
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13:57 07/30/2004
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Make trade decisions after the key release is published…Rate dynamics and recommendations on USD-CHF and USD-CAD.
We once again want to remind you that today’s preliminary data on the U.S. GDP for the second quarter are the key data of the wee, as well as the month.
The forecast is +3.8%, previous value equaled +3.9% per year. Large players started leaving the market on Wednesday. Others lower the volume of long speculative positions on the dollar.It is obvious that a lot of orders had accumulated under the powerful level of 1,20 on EUR-USD. Major buyers of the dollar, who left the market prior to today’s GDP release, must have arranged powerful stops for selling right under that level. “Eurobulls”, who are expecting weak GDP parameters (lower than +3.8%), are ready to start up from the strongest multi-monthly support. The importance of today’s GDP release is underlined by market ”inactivity” that followed the release of Jobless claims in the week ended July 24. The given parameter made up 345000, forecasted 340000Help-wanted index in the U.S. in June was also weaker than forecasted. Let us remind that it equals 38, forecasted 40, previous value was 39. The releases that will follow GDP are not likely to significantly influence the market. However, pay attention to them too.Michigan sentiment index in the U.S. in July is scheduled for 13:45 GMT (forecasted 96.0, previous value equaled 96,0). Chicago PMI is scheduled for 14:00 GMT (forecasted 62.0, previous value was 56.4). Recommendations: those players, who closed dollar longs yesterday, as a result of weak data on Jobless claims in the U.S., should stay out of the market until U.S. GDP is published.In case GDP data coincides or comes out lower than forecasted, immediately open short-term selling of USD-CHF and USD-CAD (until 23:00 Moscow time). Arrange protective stops over 1,2845 and 1,3275, respectively.In case data is higher than forecasted, for example, higher than +4%, restart strategy buying of USD-CHF and USD-CAD. Then, our earlier mentioned global targets will hold good.
Recommendations: those players, who closed dollar longs yesterday, as a result of weak data on Jobless claims in the U.S., should stay out of the market until U.S. GDP is published.In case GDP data coincides or comes out lower than forecasted, immediately open short-term selling of USD-CHF and USD-CAD (until 23:00 Moscow time). Arrange protective stops over 1,2845 and 1,3275, respectively.In case data is higher than forecasted, for example, higher than +4%, restart strategy buying of USD-CHF and USD-CAD. Then, our earlier mentioned global targets will stay in power.
The forecast was created by trans1.
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