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NEWS / Forex Forecasts

Consolidation on the market…Rate dynamics and recommendations on EUR-USD and GBP-USD.

12:15 07/29/2004

Consolidation on the market…Rate dynamics and recommendations on EUR-USD and GBP-USD. On August 10, FRS U.S. is to meet for the regular meeting, where they are to discuss the level of refinancing rate and the possibility of raising the rate target. So far, the Euro and pound sterling consolidate close to strong levels of support, as a result of Asian session. The U.S. data chilled bull sentiments on the dollar. Durable goods orders rose by 0,7% in July. Though the given parameter increassed, it was still lower than forecasted value of 1,5%. Revised May data showed 0,9% dip in durable goods orders. June growth was the first in the three last months. Orders for transportation equipment increased by 4.2%. Excluding the given category of orders, durable goods orders dropped by 0,6%, whereas economists had looked for gain in 1,1%. Factory orders rose by 0,3%, orders for computers and electronic equipment decreased by –1%, orders for telecommunication equipment dropped by –4.4%. Prices for oil still put pressure on the dollar. Prices remain on the maximal historic levels. September futures for American oil rose by $0,31 to $42,15 per barrel. Historic maximum, reached in June, equals $42,45 per barrel. The reason for such high prices for oil is interdiction on oil delivery by one of the affiliated firms of UCOS, Ugansneftegaz. The Euro is supported by data on France, the second largest economy of the EU. Processing industry’s Business optimism index rose to 106 points in July from the revised 104 points in June, reports INSEE. Economists, surveyed by Bloomberg, had looked for 105 points in May. June value of hte index was the highest since 2001. Index value highest than 50 points indicates business activity spread. Optimism growth in industry is due to increase in consumer spending, as well as French goods’ exports increase. Recommendations: do not oprn new positions and keep long-term ones, remember about protective stops. Recommendations: do not oprn new positions and keep long-term ones, remember about protective stops.

The forecast was created by trans1.
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