Signs of trend change..Rate dynamics and recommendations on EUR-USD and GBP-USD. by OpenForex.com

Signs of trend change..Rate dynamics and recommendations on EUR-USD and GBP-USD.

11:53 07/23/2004

Signs of trend change..Rate dynamics and recommendations on EUR-USD and GBP-USD. Exchange market players stay under the impression of Alan Greenspan’s speech made before the U.S. Congress. Following the address of the chairman of FRS, the head financial institution of the country, investors and analyst no longer doubt that the dollar will get stronger in the nearest perspective. A. Greenspan confirmed that FRS was ready to gradually raise interest rate target, which, in its turn, gave rise to bull sentiments on dollar. Due to lack of any significant news on the U.S., the dollar started strengthening at the beginning of morning session on the background of bear trend sentiments and negative news on Europe. German government reports that prices for German imports dropped by 0.6% m/m in June against the forecasted –0.3% m/m. Annual growth makes up 2.0% y/y against +2.5% y/y in May. June reduction was mainly caused by fall in prices for raw oil by 4.9% m/m and fall in prices for oil products by 6.4% m/m. Excluding prices for oil, import prices dropped by 0.2% m/m for the second straight month, though annual norm rose to +0.4% y/y from +0.3% y/y. The report also showed that heavy rise in import prices that occurred this spring (excluding prices for energy), slowed down in May and June. Data underlines that the main source of “imported inflation” is oil prices, which coincides with ECB analysis. Pound sterling quotations against the dollar are supported by GDP data that show the best indicators since the year 2000. GDP rose by +0.9% compared with the previous quarter and +3.7% compared with the corresponding period a year earlier. Recommendations: overall market sentiments are for dollar but we recommend waiting for confirming signals of downtrend and confident breaking out of uptrend’s trend line. Recommendations: overall market sentiments are for dollar but we recommend waiting for confirming signals of downtrend and confident breaking out of uptrend’s trend line.

The forecast was created by trans1.