Market consolidated after the testimonies of Alan Greenspan…Rate dynamics and recommendations on EUR-USD and GBP-USD.
14:35 07/22/2004

Market consolidated after the testimonies of Alan Greenspan…Rate dynamics and recommendations on EUR-USD and GBP-USD. Having strengthened after the testimonies of Alan Greenspan, dollar quotations consolidated on strong level of support at 1,831 on GBP and at 1,22 on EUR. Yesterday, FRS U.S. chairman Greenspan reported about high rates of country’s economic advance, which, in its turn, contributed to creation of new jobs. Today, Greenspan noted that growth pace was rather high and the similar situation was forecasted for the next year too. Analysts assume that statements like that mean that FRS is ready to continue raising interest rates in the future, which makes dollar investments more attractive. European currencies were supported by release of data on Eurozone’s proficit. In Eurozone, Foreign trade proficit rose to 7.3 billion Euro in May from 4.5 billion Euro a year earlier. That is preliminary data that were published today by Eurostat statistical agency. Specified data say that April proficit of made up 7.0 billion Euro against 2.7 billion Euro previous year. Seasonally adjusted exports dropped by 0.8% in May compared with the previous month, imports decreased by 0.8%. In the EU in a whole, deficit of Foreign trade balance made up 3.9 billion Euro in May against 5.4 billion Euro a year earlier. April deficit equaled 7.1 billion Euro compared with 4.0 billion Euro deficit a year earlier. Consolidation is also explained by large market-shakers’ profit fixing that followed such a strong movement of the previous days. Oil market negative still has a dumping effect on the strengthening of American currency. On the background of high prices for oil, reserves of oil and its derivatives dropped. The U.S. Department of energy reported on Wednesday that in the week ended July 16 oil reserves decreased by 3.6 million barrels to 299,3 million barrels. That is 16,1 million barrels, or 5,7% more that at the same time last year. Department of energy says “oil reserves are close to the middle of the average range for that time of the year”. Gas reserves increased by 2,5 million barrels to 208,4 million barrels last week. That is 5,0 million barrels, or 2,5% more than at the same time last year and is the middle of the average range. For the third week in a row, gas reserves stay higher than the corresponding last year’s value. Recommendations: on the background of this news, it is better to stay out of the market. Technically, quotations stay within uptrends on the Euro, as well as on pound sterling. Recommendations: on the background of this news, it is better to stay out of the market. Technically, quotations stay within uptrends on the Euro, as well as on pound sterling.

The forecast was created by trans1.

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