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Forex · News · Forex ForecastsNEWS / Forex Forecasts |
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Jobless claims are in the focus of attention…Rate dynamics and recommendations on USD-CHF and USD-CAD.
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08:20 07/22/2004
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Jobless claims are in the focus of attention…Rate dynamics and recommendations on USD-CHF and USD-CAD.
As the market was taught tough lesson to, the forecasts have become more careful and we no longer hear assurances of numerous analysts, who predicted 1,25 and 1,27 on EUR-USD at the beginning of the week.
The dollar, having got into the tempo prior to Alan Greenspan’s Tuesday testimony, has long ago broke out significant levels and stopped at the most important level of 1,2210.
To be objective, we should remind you that the rise of the dollar had started couple of hours earlier than FRS chairman’s testimony began and the necessity of deep correction in favor of the dollar, mentioned by us several times, had technically come to a head long ago.
Now, it is not that important whether the depth of current correction depends on optimistic statements of FRS officials, or whether the dollar locomotive will make the way on its own, collecting protective stops of numerous “longs” of the “Eurobulls”.
It is much more important to know where will current correction stop and is it really a correction…
The thing is that under the influence of aggressively-optimistic statements of Greenspan some large investors see the birth of regular global descending wave, with the closest target somewhere at 1,14, in current movement.
We would not make any perspective forecasts now but we can indicate the levels, which, in the aspect of market psychology, will become the key ones for forming the overall market sentiments. By the way, at the end of last week, after the series of negative releases on the U.S. economy and the overall expectations of the near fall of American currency, experienced market psychology experts warned that there was created a unique situation, when the majority of large players might be tempted by playing against the market…
So, 1,2350-65 are the levels of resistance for EUR-USD and overcoming them might bring the market to repeated testing of recent peak at 1,2460.
In case the rate continues to decline, 1,2190 will be the important level of support and 1,2145 will be the key level later on.
Trading between those levels of support and resistance is needed to attract large players, who are probably revising their investment portfolios after recent Greenspan’s testimonies, to market.
Today, we recommend paying attention to the release of the tree important indicators:
09:00 GMT – Trade balance in Europe (12) in May. Previous value equaled +6.0 billion Euro;
12:30 GMT – Jobless claims in the U.S. in the week ended July 17. Previous value equaled 349000;
14:00 GMT – Leading indicators in the U.S. in June. Forecasted 0.0%, previous value was +0.5%.
Watch market reaction to Jobless claims. In case the given indicator is lower than forecasted, EUR-USD might rise to 1,2350-65. If the outcome is higher than expected, the rate will test major levels of 1,2190 and 1,2145.
Recommendations: make trade decisions upon the results of the indicated release.
Recommendations: make trade decisions upon the results of the indicated release.
The forecast was created by trans1.
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