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Forex · News · USMarketNEWS / USMarket |
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Market is extremely thin, trading risks are high…Rate dynamics and recommendations on USD-CHF and USD-CAD.
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11:39 06/25/2004
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Market is extremely thin, trading risks are high…Rate dynamics and recommendations on USD-CHF and USD-CAD.
New militant attacks in Iraq and Turkey and recently published weak economic data put significant pressure on the dollar. Besides, all of the above mentioned increased demand for Swiss franks and precious metals. As a result, USD-CHF rate went almost two patterns down yesterday, from the level of 1,2570 to 1,2385.
A lot is being decided now for USD-JPY pair. Besides, indecisiveness of investors in terms of further dynamics of major currency pairs makes players open positions on cross rates and other pairs. Thus, the leader of yesterday falling was USD-CAD, which had lost more than two patterns. On the other hand, rates of Australian and New Zealand dollars rose.
Next week we are expecting positive review of the Bank of Japan Tankan and that pushes the yen to further strengthening. However, that does not totally agree with the plans of Japanese government, which is starting verbal support of the dollar and the Euro against national currency of Japan.
Thus, deputy of Finance minister of Japan, Mizoguchi, once again stated that movements of exchange rates on the Forex market were unfavorable. We should remember that two days earlier, finance minister of Japan Tanigaki said, when commenting recent strengthening of the yen against the dollar, that forex market exchange rates had to agree with current fundamentals. He also added that case of need his Department would take necessary measures to prevent excessive and unfavorable volatility of Japanese yen.
The words of the head of the Bank of Japan, Fukui, were of a cold shower kind for investors. Fukui said that deflation was warring Japanese economy and it was early to talk about completion of “deep” monetary policy. As a result, it was unanimously decided not to change major parameters of monetary policy at the meeting of Bard of Governors of the Bank of Japan.
We want to remind you once again that yesterday’s discouraging data on U.S. economy brought markets to doubts.
Thus, durable goods orders in the U.S. in May made up –1,6%, forecasted +1,8%, previous value equaled –3,2%.
In the week ended June 19, jobless claims in the U.S. made up 349000, whereas forecasted 339000, previous value equaled 336000.
Note that both indicators came out worse than forecasted, which immediately affected American currency.
However, new home sales in the U.S. set another ten-year record and the previous value was also revised aside increase.
Help-wanted index in the U.S. in May made up 39 (forecasted 40, previous value equaled 38).
Today we are expecting a whole series of important economic news:
12:30 GMT – final value of GDP index in the U.S. in first quarter (forecasted +4,4% per year, previous value equaled +4,4% per year).
13:45 GMT – final value of Michigan sentiments index in the U.S. in June (forecasted 95,2, previous value equaled 95,2).
14:00GMT – existing home sales in the U.S. in May (forecasted 6.51, previous value equaled 6,54).
Recommendations: in the end, in order to avoid excessive trade risks prior to a whole series of important events, we recommend staying out of the market.
Recommendations: in the end, in order to avoid excessive trade risks prior to a whole series of important events, we recommend staying out of the market.
The forecast was created by trans1.
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