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Forex · News · Forex ForecastsNEWS / Forex Forecasts |
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We are expecting data on weekly jobless claims…Rate dynamics and recommendations on USD-CHF and USD-CAD.
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11:34 06/10/2004
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We are expecting data on weekly jobless claims…Rate dynamics and recommendations on USD-CHF and USD-CAD.
As it was presupposed yesterday, the fall of support at 1,2150 immediately brought the market to testing key level at 1,2020-50.
The major impulse for such move was the statement made by FRS U.S. chairman Alan Greenspan, who said that FRS would do its best to restrain inflation. Such statement was interpreted as readiness to raise the level of basic interest rates in the nearest time period.
The objective factors in favor of supporting American currency are significant reduction in world prices for oil and consumer demand rise in the U.S. In this regard, we are very much eager to find out today’s data on weekly jobless claims in the U.S. in the week ended June, 05. Let us remind that the forecast is 335000 and the previous value was 339000. At 12:30 GMT, we are also to find out import prices in the U.S. in May (previous value equaled +0.2%) and export prices in the U.S. in May (previous value equaled +0.6%).
At 18:00 GMT, Federal budget data for May is to be released in the U.S. Let us remind that the forecast is –70.0 billion dollars and the previous value equaled +17.5 billion dollars.
Positive data (especially, on weekly jobless claims) will help the dollar to continue its triumphal movement and the level of 1,2710 and, later on, 1,2870 will be the next target for USD/CHF rate.
As for USD/CAD rate, the next targets for it will be 1,3750-70. We recommend opening long positions on this pair even today, in case the outcome of weekly jobless claims is positive. Weak data (much worse than forecasted) will let USD/CAD rate to play downwards and we’ll get a unique opportunity to open long-term purchases from the levels that are close to 1,3470 – 1,3530.
We should also say that long-term potential of that pair is not limited by 1,3750-70 levels. That fact is, we are expecting that bears will be out for revenge from those very levels and we can not exclude some downward correction of the pair. However, we still see 1,4150 level, as the strategy target of growth.
Long-term forecast on USD/CHF is very much dependant on geo-political situation in the world. That is why we can seriously consider targets at 1,2710 and 1,2870 only. Further on, much will depend on the steps of new Iraq administration and on situation in Palestinian territories in Israel, as well as world oil prices situation.
Recommendations: we recommend opening medium-term positions on USD against CAD and CHF, right after American release is published; in case data comes out positive, open positions from current levels. Protective stops should be arranged under 1,24 for USD/CHF and under 1,34 for USD/CAD.
Recommendations: we recommend opening medium-term positions on USD against CAD and CHF, right after American release is published; in case data comes out positive, open positions from current levels. Protective stops should be arranged under 1,24 for USD/CHF and under 1,34 for USD/CAD.
The forecast was created by trans1.
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