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Forex · News · Forex ForecastsNEWS / Forex Forecasts |
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Rate dynamics and recommendations on EUR-USD and GBP-USD.
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18:50 06/04/2004
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It is very much likely that the market will be in a slight apathy today after the eventful Thursday. Despite the significance of the expected fundamental data, the release of the leading indicators put even more questions before the analysts.
The data were rather contradictory. If we look at it from the point of view of the impact it produces on the currency market dynamics, we get the following picture.
The dollar is definitely supported by OPEC countries’ decision to raise oil extraction quota on 2 million barrels to 25,5 million barrels per day. The given decision was made at OPEC meeting in Beirut on June 3. It is also planned to raise the quota half a million barrels per day more by August. The given decision resulted in oil price drop at the New York Exchange, as well as London Exchange.
The positive news was brought by the U.S. Department of Energy. Oil reserves in the U.S. rose 2.8 million barrels last week, whereas gaz reserves rose 1,3 million barrels per day.
The U.S. Labor market release had put investors in impasse. Jobless claims reduced on 6 000 and made up 339 000 last week; previous week’s indicator were revised to 345 000 (344 000 according to initial data). Unemployment rate reduction means that FRS rate hike expected at the end of the 2nd quarter is rather ambiguous. That also weakens the dollar perspective for the nearest months.
European Central Bank met yesterday to make a decision upon the rate of refinancing. Jean-Claude Trichet said there were no reasons for raising the rates, as inflation was under control and CPI rise was within the norm, according to Europe’s PPI. The given news had deprived the Euro of energy for rise. British national currency is still supported by the expected Old Lady’s rate hike. The European currencies are supported by positive data on production growth and GDP growth forecasts. Jean-Claude Trichet said the new GDP forecast for 2004 was 2.0% against the forecasted 1.7%.
Taking into account the above-mentioned information, we can say that the risks are balanced. Stay out of the market today.
Taking into account the above-mentioned information, we can say that the risks are balanced. Stay out of the market today.
The forecast was created by trans1.
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