Rate dynamics and recommendations on EUR-USD and GBP-USD. by OpenForex.com

Rate dynamics and recommendations on EUR-USD and GBP-USD.

08:39 05/27/2004

Rate dynamics and recommendations on EUR-USD and GBP-USD. Market goes on ignoring positive news on the U.S. economy and vividly reacts to negative indicators. New home sales in the U.S. in April made up 1093000 (forecasted as 1199000, the previous value was revised from 1228000 to 1239000). Durable goods orders in the U.S. in April made up –2.9% (forecasted as -0.5%, the previous value equaled 5.00%). Both indicators came out below market forecasts. The dollar continues to be negatively affected by carbon energy market – oil and petrol. In the U.S., oil inventories did not change last week and petrol inventories reduced 700 000 barrels. The U.S. Department of energy said on Wednesday that during the week ended May 21, oil inventories did not change compared to the previous week and remained on the level of 298,9 million barrels. That is 13,0 million barrels or 4.5% more than at the similar period of last year, or 5.3% less than the average 5-year value for this time of the year. Last week, petrol inventories reduced 700 000 barrels to 203,0 million barrels. That is 5,0 million barrels or 2,4% less than at the similar period of last year, and 9,7 million barrels or 4.6% less than the five-year value for this time of the year. Inventories of highly purified petrol, the use of which is necessary in American megalopolises during the summer season, reduced 1,2 million barrels to 24,3 million barrels. Oil prices stay on the record high levels. The European Union expressed the opinion that oil prices should not be connected only to the dollar. The EU energy commissioner Loyola de Palacio said at the press-conference that sharp rise in prices for oil was not only the result of “black gold” shortage but speculative games. She appealed to OPEK to increase extraction in order not to deprive oil producers of consumer confidence. Changing over from the dollar connection to currency basket, where the Euro is to be of great weight, will result in steep reduction of the dollar “authority” on the world arena. That is definitely to affect the quotations too. Though the given perspective is rather disputable and the U.S. are not likely to give away such an important lever of influence, as dollar oil prices, the rumors can swing the scales of the currency market away from the U.S. national currency. Recommendations: since the market situation is not in favor of the dollar, you can stick to the earlier given recommendations. The final indicator of Michigan sentiments index is scheduled for Friday and it may significantly affect currencies’ movement. Recommendations: since the market situation is not in favor of the dollar, you can stick to the earlier given recommendations. The final indicator of Michigan sentiments index is scheduled for Friday and it may significantly affect currencies’ movement.

The forecast was created by trans1.