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Forex · News · Forex ForecastsNEWS / Forex Forecasts |
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We are expecting durable goods orders data…Forecast on the dynamics of USD/CHF and USD/CAD rates.
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09:35 05/26/2004
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We are expecting durable goods orders data…Forecast on the dynamics of USD/CHF and USD/CAD rates.
The main web of market intrigue is still being plotted around the possible U.S. FRS interest rate hike. Impetuous rise of the world prices for oil can significantly slow down the tempo of economic advance in the U.S., which might result in FRS refusal to raise the level of major interest rates.
Though consumer confidence index came out almost as forecasted by economists, the players were disappointed. Let us remind that index value equals 93.2 and the previous value was revised from 92.9 to 93.0.
However, we should mention that index rose despite geo-political tensions increase and rise in prices for energy.
On the background of low rates, new homes sales are increasing. Thus, sales of earlier built homes made up 6.64 million, whereas forecasted as 6.64 million.
Rumors about the possible FRS rate hike make investors hurry to benefit by low level of interest rates in the country.
The release of the most important economic indicator – durable goods orders in the U.S. in April – is scheduled for 12:30 GMT today. Let us remind that the index is expected to come out as –0.5% and its previous value equaled 5.0%.
New home sales data for April, scheduled for 14:00 GMT, is likely to show advance. The forecast is 1199000, the previous value equaled 1228000.
It is worthwhile noting that IFO Institute’s business confidence index made up 96,1 in May in Germany against 96,3 in April. However, small reduction of the index stayed within the frame of the forecasts and turned out to be a positive factor for the players, as index was expected to reduce significantly due to energy price rise.
Despite the fact that the last drop of the dollar was forecasted, one should notice that the rate of the dollar approached significant levels against major currencies. In case the dollar is supported by fundamental factors (today’s data on the U.S. economy), one can not exclude slight correction.
1,2180-95 can become those levels for EUR/USD and 1,2580-05 for USD/CHF respectively.
USD/CAD rate has all the chances to go down to 1,34 and regular massive purchases are likely to take place there .In a whole, bullish sentiments at USD/CAD market is more evident then anywhere else. Probably, it is a result of two things: Canadian government’s concern about the recent significant strengthening of their currency and the verbal support of the rate rendered by officials’ statements.
Those, who opened “shorts” on USD/CHF yesterday, we recommend keeping them, arranging protective stops in break-even. In case durable goods orders index for April is high, it will be necessary to close out greater part of lots, leaving only strategy positions.
As for USD/CAD rate, steady decline under 1,3625-40 will be good signal for further decline to 1,34. Careful selling is possible (with the minimal number of lots), in case the indicated levels are overcome. 1,3785 will be a critical level of growth. Overcoming this level will shift the accents in favor of “bulls”.
Those, who opened “shorts” on USD/CHF yesterday, we recommend keeping them, arranging protective stops in break-even. In case durable goods orders index for April is high, it will be necessary to close out greater part of lots, leaving only strategy positions.
As for USD/CAD rate, steady decline under 1,3625-40 will be good signal for further decline to 1,34. Careful selling is possible (with the minimal number of lots), in case the indicated levels are overcome. 1,3785 will be a critical level of growth. Overcoming this level will shift the accents in favor of “bulls”.
The forecast was created by trans1.
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