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Forex · News · Forex ForecastsNEWS / Forex Forecasts |
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The key data on the U.S. can turn around the trend…Rate dynamics and recommendations on EUR-USD and GBP-USD.
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09:16 05/20/2004
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The key data on the U.S. can turn around the trend…Rate dynamics and recommendations on EUR-USD and GBP-USD.
Positive economic news from the Old World was the main moving force of the currency market yesterday. According to the minutes of the meeting of the Bank of England, that took place on May 5-6, all the 9 members of the Board voted unanimously for raising the rate on 25 points to 4.15%. The question of raising the rate 50 points higher was also discussed, however, all the members of the Board voted for raising the rate only on 25 points. The Bank of England noted that the rates might be raised faster than supposed by the market. The Board members are sure that 50 points rate hike will contribute to lowering the volume of consumer debt. Exports from Eurozone rose 12 percent to 100,4 billion Euro in March 2004 compared to March 2003; imports rose 5,0 percent to 90,2 billion Euro. Statistical data shows that European exporters actively used growth facilities, provided by world economy recovery and the Euro rate decline against the dollar. February rise of the European currency to $1,29 per Euro resulted in recovery slowing down concerns in Eurozone. International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts that the volume of world trade would rise 6,8% in 2004 after 4,5% gain in 2003.
Eurostat submitted International trade balance data on 25 countries of the European Union for February. The given data says that the EU International trade balance dropped to 4,3 billion Euro in February 2004 from 6,7 billion Euro in February 2003 and 12,1 billion Euro in January 2004. In the first quarter of 2004, the positive surplus of the International trade of Eurozone rose two times more to 18,3 billion Euro from 7,0 billion Euro in the similar period of 2003.
The release of the following significant data on the U.S. is scheduled for today:
16:30 Moscow time - Jobless claims in the U.S. during the week up to May 15 (forecasted as 330000, the previous value was 331000);
18:00 Moscow time - Leading indicators in the U.S. for April (forecasted as 0.0%, the previous value was +0.3%);
20:00 Moscow time - Philadelphia Fed index for May in the U.S. (forecasted +33.0, previous value was +32.5).
The release of those data will be the key one for the week. If the outcome is positive, the uptrend can turn around, so you should keep short stops on long-term positions, as recommended earlier. You can close out short-term positions at current prices.
The release of those data will be the key one for the week. If the outcome is positive, the uptrend can turn around, so you should keep short stops on long-term positions, as recommended earlier. you can close out short-term positions at current prices
The forecast was created by trans1.
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