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Forex · News · Forex ForecastsNEWS / Forex Forecasts |
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Rate dynamics and recommendations on EUR-USD and GBP-USD.
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07:18 05/19/2004
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Rate dynamics and recommendations on EUR-USD and GBP-USD.
Despite negative ZEW index data, the Euro continues keeping positions occupied yesterday. The chief economist of Investec thinks that ZEW index dip should not be considered as a serious signal of business climate deterioration. “Certainly, ZEW index has brought disappointment. But after the series of GDP indicators (of Eurozone countries) for the first quarter, the outcome of which was higher than expected, index shouldn’t be paid so much attention to. In the couple of last months, the index has become not as reliable as it used to be. ZEW keeps on signaling about business climate deterioration and contradicts other business sentiments’ indicators. Still, we should not completely ignore it”.
Sal. Oppenheim experts say that economic perspectives’ optimism continues melting. Analysts become more and more cautious and foresee new threats for the world economy, be it oil and raw material price dynamics or the future of Chinese economy. According to Sal. Oppenheim economists, Ifo business climate indicator has a significant weight, as it is based on companies’ data, whereas ZEW takes into account analysts’ opinion only.
The dollar is still negatively affected by oil price rise at the world exchanges and, respectively, by rise of gaz prices in the U.S. Positive data on Japan’s economy also puts significant pressure on the dollar.
The yen rose against the dollar on Wednesday due to Japan’s stock exchange market strengthening that followed economic data releases. In particular, the reason for optimism was news about GDP gains in January-March period, which were above market expectations. As a result, the dollar dropped to 113,55/3,60 yen per one unit of American currency. The rate of the Euro against the dollar made up $1,1960/63 per common European currency unit, which approximately coincides with the previous trades.
Recommendations: we recommend keeping earlier arranged positions, pull stop on GBP to 1,7625 and to 1,189 on EUR.
Recommendations: we recommend keeping earlier arranged positions, pull stop on GBP to 1,7625 and to 1,189 on EUR.
The forecast was created by trans1.
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