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Forex · News · Forex ForecastsNEWS / Forex Forecasts |
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What will FRS members say?…Forecast on the dynamics of USD/CHF and USD/CAD rates.
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10:34 05/04/2004
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What will FRS members say?…Forecast on the dynamics of USD/CHF and USD/CAD rates.
Traditionally, the big players abstain from entering the market prior to the FOMC meeting. Though everyone knows that the absolute majority of analysts do not expect the rates to be raised at today’s meeting, the main intrigue of the day is still the FOMC conclusive resume. The player will try to find the answer to the main question of the last months: would the rates be raised in the near future.
Let us remind that according to the forecasts of a great number of economists, the rates will be raised this August and will make up 0,75%.
So far, investors are waiting for either the FOMC statement, or for evident and significant employment growth higher than the forecasted figures, so that the possibility of rates’ rise becomes real.
The last data could not stimulate any significant movements on thin holiday market. Let us remind that ISM index came out almost as expected and made up 62.4 in April in the U.S. Moreover, it turned out to be lower than its previous value that equaled 62.5.
However, it was more important for investors that index components, reflecting employment and price changes, showed growth.
Construction spending in the U.S. in March, forecasted as +0.2% and coming out as +1.5%, was absolutely ignored by market participants.
Let us remind that the release of factory orders index in the U.S. in March is scheduled for 14:00 GMT today. The given index is forecasted as +2.0%, its previous value equaled +0.3%.
Today, market attention will be fixed on the results of the Federal Open Market Committee, which will be known at 18:15 GMT.
We still see EUR/USD rise to 1,2040 as a very probable one; when the given level is broken out, testing of key levels at 1,2080 and 1,2150 is also possible. Selling looks very reasonable from the given levels, as fall of those levels will result in revision of all the earlier market opinions.
The main “fundamental” factor for the dollar rise reopening against all the major currencies can be either Friday U.S. labor market review, or today’s statements of the FOMC members, in case they contain something unexpected.
So far, we can not exclude the possibility of unpredictable speculations on the thin market, as it happened many times in the past.
That is why, we recommend staying out of the market today.
So far, we can not exclude the possibility of unpredictable speculations on the thin market, as it happened many times in the past.
That is why, we recommend staying out of the market today.
The forecast was created by trans1.
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