|
 |
Forex · News · Forex ForecastsNEWS / Forex Forecasts |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Rate dynamics and recommendations on EUR-USD and GBP-USD.
|
|
13:54 05/03/2004
|
|
Rate dynamics and recommendations on EUR-USD and GBP-USD.
The market was disappointed at the series of negative dollar data that followed weak data on GDP. Preliminary data on the U.S. GDP for the first quarter, published on Thursday, were a bad present for the exhausted market. On the one hand, GDP growth that made up 4,2% in annual estimation in the first quarter was much lower than the average forecast of economists who had looked for 5%. On the other hand, inflation indicators that are included in GDP report showed inflationary pressure rise. The weaker than expected economic growth disappointed investors. Their pessimism was also strengthened by Michigan sentiments index. Index values came out lower than the previous March ones. The final Michigan sentiments index was expected as 87,3 against 88,8 in March; current conditions of the final value of the index are 105,0 against 106,8 in March; final Michigan sentiments index is 94,2 against 95,8 in March.
On Friday, the U.S. Department of Trade published data on consumer spending and income for March, and spending increase was greatly due to tax reimbursement and mortgage credits’ refinancing. In March, consumer spending rose 0,4%, having shown rise for the sixth straight month and having coincided with the revised February indicator. Consumer income rose 0,4% after 0,5% gain in February.
In March, income growth was limited by slower than earlier tempo of earnings rise. Economists think that as tax reimbursement and refinancing reduce, creation of new workplaces will become a stimulus for consumer income increase, especially if inflationary indicators continue their rise. “In the end, creation of new workplaces will be a locomotive of growth for consumer spending, - said Rajeev Dhawan, the head of the Center for Economic forecasts of the Georgia State University, prior to the release of report, - employers are not aspired to raise the salary, as the labor market is in tight conditions so far”. The group of economists, interviewed by Bloomberg News, had looked for 0,7% gain in consumer spending in March after 0,2% gain in February (initial indicator); income growth was forecasted within 0,4%, whereas initial February estimations equaled 0,4%.
Durable goods spending rose 0,3% in March, whereas February gain equaled 0,7%. The volume of everyday goods spending had not changed for the second straight month. Spending on services, making up 60% of the total volume of spending, rose 0,1% in March and 0,2% in February. Compared to the previous month, the level of earnings rose 0,2%, whereas February gain equaled 0,5%. Savings norm made up 1,9% in March, just as in February. Disposable income rose 0,4% in March after having risen 0,5% in February.
Negative fundamental data caused the Euro trend pullback to the psychological level of 1,2 and to the line of the global trend. Technically strong level of support at 1,1750 can serve as the end of wave 3 and the development of correction wave towards the line of resistance at 1,2 of a trend as wave 4, which is the support line of wave 1 of a trend. It would be right to suppose the occurrence of wave 5 of a trend. Wave 5 of a trend is the most unpredictable chain of the trend, as a rule.
Recommendations: that is why, we recommend staying out of the market.
Recommendations: that is why, we recommend staying out of the market.
The forecast was created by trans1.
|
|
 Printer-Friendly Version
 Send This Page
 Add to Favorites
 Comments
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
 |
|
|
|
|
|
