Market indefiniteness…Forecast on the dynamics of USD/CHF and USD/CAD rates. by OpenForex.com

Market indefiniteness…Forecast on the dynamics of USD/CHF and USD/CAD rates.

09:56 04/23/2004

Market indefiniteness…Forecast on the dynamics of USD/CHF and USD/CAD rates. Market indefiniteness…Forecast on the dynamics of USD/CHF and USD/CAD rates. Yesterday’s U.S. Jobless claims for the week up to April 17, having come out as 353 000, whereas expected as 335 000, produced a negative impact on the dollar. Despite the fact that claims reduced compared to the last week, they came out weaker than expected. In a whole, Industrial prices index came out as forecasted. March industrial prices index in the U.S. equals +0.5%, whereas forecasted +0.5%. Industrial prices index, excluding food and energy, made up +0.2% in the U.S. in March, whereas forecasted +0.1%. Market is at loss now: on the one hand, short positions on EUR/USD are being closed, following the whole series of releases on the U.S. economy (starting last Friday) and approaching the level of 1.1780, the minimal one in the last half a year. On the other hand, there is a hope for interest rates’ rise this year, which was indirectly proved by Alan Greenspan’s recent testimony, and that keeps dollar positions against the major currencies stable. American stock exchange market think the testimony reduces the possibility of near (by the end of this summer) increase of the U.S. interest rates and reacted by raising stock exchange indexes and prices for Treasury bonds. The U.S. Commerce Department secretary Snow said yesterday that the recovery of the U.S. economy was going at a high pace, having also added that the number of new workplaces would increase in the nearest months. Despite the weakness of yesterday’s data, USD/CHF demonstrates steadiness and determination to test the key resistance at 1,32 for firmness. Those, who kept “longs” with minimal number of lots, opened from 1,3055 on April 21, we recommend keeping them so far, placing protective stop under 1,3065. Though there is still a possibility of the deep correction of the rate (to 1,29), “bull” market sentiments on the given position keeps numerous long positions opened. The release of extremely important indicator, which is an important factor of economic growth – durable goods orders index in the U.S. in March – is scheduled for 16:30 Moscow time today. Let us remind that the economists forecast the given index to be +2.0%, the previous value equaled +2.5%. Today, we recommend making trade decision upon the results of durable goods orders index for March. In case it comes out lower than forecasted, EUR/USD rise to 1,2020 seems to be quite possible. That is why we recommend selling USD/CHF rate from the level that will be current for that moment, in case the indicator comes you lower than +2.0%. Intraday decline target will be 1,29. The first safe signal of such movement will be decline under 1,3050, which might enable the strengthening of “shorts”. In case index comes out higher than +2.5%, breaking out the resistance at 1,32 and collecting “short stops” higher than that might take place. Approaching the level of 1,34 can become quite possible, though it is not likely to happen today. That is why you should buy from the level that will be current at that moment, with the indicated target and the stop under 1,3050. Partial closing of positions should be done around 23:00 Moscow time (at the time of massive closing of weekly positions). As for USD/CAD rate, any purchases will be justified only from 1,3470 or even lower than that. However, keep in mind today’s fundamental indicator, as its weakness presupposes more significant correction. Wait for additional signals for making purchases. In case such signal appear, we will let you know. That is why we recommend selling USD/CHF rate from the level that will be current for that moment, in case the indicator comes you lower than +2.0%. Intraday decline target will be 1,29. The first safe signal of such movement will be decline under 1,3050, which might enable the strengthening of “shorts”. In case index comes out higher than +2.5%, breaking out the resistance at 1,32 and collecting “short stops” higher than that might take place. Approaching the level of 1,34 can become quite possible, though it is not likely to happen today. That is why you should buy from the level that will be current at that moment, with the indicated target and the stop under 1,3050. Partial closing of positions should be done around 23:00 Moscow time (at the time of massive closing of weekly positions). As for USD/CAD rate, any purchases will be justified only from 1,3470 or even lower than that. However, keep in mind today’s fundamental indicator, as its weakness presupposes more significant correction. Wait for additional signals for making purchases. In case such signal appear, we will let you know.

The forecast was created by trans1.