What will weekly claims show?…Forecast on the dynamics of USD/CHF and USD/CAD rates. by OpenForex.com

news

job

forum

Forex · News · Forex Forecasts

NEWS / Forex Forecasts

What will weekly claims show?…Forecast on the dynamics of USD/CHF and USD/CAD rates.

12:06 04/22/2004

What will weekly claims show?…Forecast on the dynamics of USD/CHF and USD/CAD rates. Yesterday testimony of the FRS head Greenspan before the Congressional Joint Economic Committee did not clear the question of rates’ rise. Moreover, when touching upon the “fateful” issue, FRS chairman Greenspan “chilled” the expectations of some economists, who were too hasty in forecasting near increase of the U.S. interest rates (this August). He said interest rates must rise at some point, but seemed to rule out an imminent increase by saying more vigorous growth hadn\'t yet sparked broad price pressures. But he offered no clue about timing. In a whole, yesterday testimony before the Joint Economic Committee of the U.S. Congress proved FRS intentions to raise interest rates to be true. Market participants are eager to know the date of that decision. Following Greenspan’s testimony, there appeared various comments of FRS members, who were more bold in stating their opinion about raising the rates.for example, San Francisco Fed Bank President Robert Parry said today U.S. interest rates would be raised at some definite moment to fight the possible inflation rise. The so-called \"beige book\" summary of national economic conditions said economic activity increased across the nation from mid-February through early April. Retail sales were increasing. Labor market situation was improving. Gradual rise of new workplaces was noticed in the majority of the regions. Today, market attention will be fixed on unemployment data that is expected at 16:30 Moscow time. Let us remind that the expected figures range from 335 000 to 340 000, the previous value equaled 360 000. Besides, industrial prices index in the U.S. in March is to be released today. The forecast is +0.8% per month, the previous value equaled +0.1% per month. Industrial price index, excluding food and energy, in the U.S. in March is forecasted as +0.1% per month, the previous value equaled +0.1% per month. That is why today we recommend fixing your attention on the given indicators and on USD/CHF rate’s behavior near the level of 1,3040. Those, who bought the rate from 1,3055 yesterday with minimal number of lots, we recommend closing “longs” into “break-even”, incase the rate goes further down to 1,3055. There still remains the possibility of lower correction (to 1,2880). In case of such correction, buy from 1,2900, placing stop under the level of 1,2820. If today’s data on weekly jobless claims are worse than forecasted, do not hurry with purchases and wait for Friday. In case of positive data (lower than forecasted), stay in long position, placing stop over 1,3035. As for USD/CAD situation, any purchases from the current levels can result in great descending correction, that is why we recommend buying it only when descending to 1,35, or even to 1,3450 and lower. Strategy target is 1,4150. When opening position, place stop under 1,34. That is why today we recommend fixing your attention on the given indicators and on USD/CHF rate’s behavior near the level of 1,3040. Those, who bought the rate from 1,3055 yesterday with minimal number of lots, we recommend closing “longs” into “break-even”, incase the rate goes further down to 1,3055. There still remains the possibility of lower correction (to 1,2880). In case of such correction, buy from 1,2900, placing stop under the level of 1,2820. If today’s data on weekly jobless claims are worse than forecasted, do not hurry with purchases and wait for Friday. In case of positive data (lower than forecasted), stay in long position, placing stop over 1,3035. As for USD/CAD situation, any purchases from the current levels can result in great descending correction, that is why we recommend buying it only when descending to 1,35, or even to 1,3450 and lower. Strategy target is 1,4150. When opening position, place stop under 1,34.

The forecast was created by trans1.