Market estimates Friday statistics…Forecast on the dynamics of USD/CHF and USD/CAD rates. by OpenForex.com

news

job

forum

Forex · News · USMarket

NEWS / USMarket

Market estimates Friday statistics…Forecast on the dynamics of USD/CHF and USD/CAD rates.

08:37 04/19/2004

Market estimates Friday statistics…Forecast on the dynamics of USD/CHF and USD/CAD rates. Despite the perfect data on New Houses construction and Construction permits in the U.S. in March, which came out higher than forecasted and made up 2.007 million and 1.946 million respectively, two other indicators of American economy had put Friday American session players into dejection. Let us remind that industrial production in the U.S. in March turned out to be negative for the first time in the last eight months and made up –0.2%, whereas forecasted +0.3%. Even greater disappointment was April Michigan sentiments index in the U.S. in April that made up 93.2, whereas expected as 96.7. On Friday, one of FRS members – the president of Federal Reserve Bank in Richmond, Broaddus – stated that it was necessary to make sure that American economy was steadily growing prior to making a decision upon raising major interest rates. As a result, Friday statistics proved that it was too early to talk about powerful growth of first world economy. Market reaction to the release of the given data was rather natural. Unfortunately, the difference between the forecasted and the real value turned out to be not that great to inspire the market for more significant moves and to reaching the targets, indicated by us. However, we suppose that the dollar “bulls” were a little confused on Friday and the results of the week added supporters to those who purchase European currencies. Surely, obvious leap from the strong line of dynamic support, having its start since April 1, presupposes that USD/CHF will make another attempt of taking key resistance at 1,3060-80 by storm. Its true falling will take USD/CHF to 1.3650 and to 1,3960 later. However, if the pair is helpless to climb to the indicated key resistance, quick decline to major support at 1,2515-45 will be just a matter of time. It is natural that Friday evening session’s steep moves are not the strong arguments in long-term forecasts, however, it is worthwhile mentioning that USD/CAD demonstrated enviable steadiness on the background of depressing American data. Besides, having triple hourly “diver” on the record of achievements, the rate did not want to leave the bounds of tight trading corridor between 1,34 and 1,35. It is natural that intraday overbuying of USD/CAD and the overall fundamental “anti-dollar” background does not inspire the players to intensively purchase the dollar. However, steady rise higher than 1,35 will be the most essential argument in favor of strategy rise to 1,3780 and further to cherished target at 1,4150. Thus, taking into account all of the above-mentioned, we recommend: Buy USD/CHF from 1,3065. Short-term target of purchases is 1,3280. Medium-term target is 1,3420. Strategy target is 1,3620. Stop should be placed at 1,39. Sell USD/CHF from 1,2875 with minimal number of lots, with target at 1,2740. Place stop at 1,2965. Be ready to purchase USD/CAD from 1,3220. Stop at the level of 1,3080. Upon breaking-out the resistance, there will be the following targets: the first one is at 1,3780 and the second one (key target) is at 1,4150. The given recommendation is of preliminary character and can be annulled soon, as we can not exclude growth without a pullback. For USD/CAD, in case there is a break-out of major resistance at 1,35 without a pullback, we think the possibility of purchasing the rate to be rather high, as the rate might go back to such strong resistance that will now serve as a level of support. Thus, taking into account all of the above-mentioned, we recommend: Buy USD/CHF from 1,3065. Short-term target of purchases is 1,3280. Medium-term target is 1,3420. Strategy target is 1,3620. Stop should be placed at 1,39. Sell USD/CHF from 1,2875 with minimal number of lots, with target at 1,2740. Place stop at 1,2965. Be ready to purchase USD/CAD from 1,3220. Stop at the level of 1,3080. Upon breaking-out the resistance, there will be the following targets: the first one is at 1,3780 and the second one (key target) is at 1,4150. The given recommendation is of preliminary character and can be annulled soon, as we can not exclude growth without a pullback. For USD/CAD, in case there is a break-out of major resistance at 1,35 without a pullback, we think the possibility of purchasing the rate to be rather high, as the rate might go back to such strong resistance that will now serve as a level of support.

The forecast was created by trans1.