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Forex · News · USMarketNEWS / USMarket |
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Market is thin, trade risks are maximum… Forecast on the dynamics of USD/CHF and USD/CAD rates.
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20:57 04/09/2004
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Market is thin, trade risks are maximum… Forecast on the dynamics of USD/CHF and USD/CAD rates.
Yesterday’s data have once again shown how poorly economic successes of Eurozone countries appear and how the United States leave them way behind.
Economic data on Germany, the “locomotive” of the Eurozone, traditionally put the beginning to the European negative. Unexpected significant decrease of volumes of German industrial production induced players of the European session to sale European currencies against dollar.
Data on quantity of applications for the unemployed benefit in the USA for a week by the April, 3 appeared better then the forecasts and reached minimum level in spring of 2001. Then, at the American session the purchase of dollar increased and euro/dollar tested support on 1,2060.
Let us remind, that quantity of applications for the unemployment benefit in the USA for a week by April, 3, at the forecast of 335 thousand, has made 328 thousand. And, the previous figure was equal to 342 thousand.
Index of commodity stocks in warehouses of wholesale trade exceeded the expectations, showed confident increase of volumes of commodity stocks and also rendered unexpected support to dollar. It is remarkable, that the steady growth of the stocks, which has begun at the end of the last year, usually specifies potential increase of volume of trade.
However, the situation in the market is extremely unstable because of the approach of the long days off - Easter holidays, and players have already started to leave the market. Therefore because of decrease of volume of trading operations on Forex, significant speculative movements can not be excluded today.
In the evening it is necessary to pay attention to industrial price index in the USA for March (the forecast of +0.1 % for a month, the previous value of +0.1 % for a month); and industrial price index without taking into account prices for food stuffs and energy carriers in the USA for March (the forecast of +0.9 % for a month, the previous value of +0.1 % for a month).
In spite of the fact that we still see positive long-term forecast on pair dollar/franc, today however, we do not exclude the speculative emission to 1,2950-60 level.
Concerning the situation with USD/CAD rate, it becomes obvious that last recommendations for sales from 1,3005 level lose their urgency. The affinity of strong day time resistance on 1,35 increases camp of buyers of a rate. However, it’s not a fact that it will be overcome soon, and the fair congestion of protective stops \"sellers\" is easily guessed above this level. And it makes fast emission in this zone possible in the current thin market.
Thus, however, closing the week above this level (1,35) becomes a good signal for the further strategic growth of a rate.
Recommendations: stay out of the market.
The forecast was created by trans1.
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