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Forex · News · Forex ForecastsNEWS / Forex Forecasts |
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How’s grandpa Greenspan?…Forecast on the dynamics of USD/CHF and USD/CAD rates.
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07:28 04/01/2004
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How’s grandpa Greenspan?…Forecast on the dynamics of USD/CHF and USD/CAD rates.
Rumors about Alan Greenspan’s heart attack and disappointing statistics on the U.S. economy “helped” the dollar reach the levels that we indicated yesterday.
Let us remind that factory orders for February made up =0.3% per month in the U.S., whereas expected to be +1.5% per month. Chicago PMI for March made up 57.6, whereas forecasted as 61.4. Though the given indexes turned out to be lower than expected, they put less impact on investors’ sentiments as news about illness of the head of the U.S. FRS did.
Besides, powerful strengthening of the Japanese yen against the dollar and absence of the Bank of Japan on the market puts pressure on American currency. Players that expected active actions to be taken by the Bank of Japan were a bit surprised and disappointed by the statement made by Sadakazu Tanigaki, Japanese minister of finance. He assured declared that “Japan continued economic growth, despite expensive yen”. That statement enables us to suppose that the ministry of finance thinks that current levels match economic situation in the country.
The meeting of ECB will be in the focus of attention today, however, more and more analysts think that the rates will remain unchanged. Forex market activity is very low, as players do not want to risk prior to the meeting of ECB and prior to the release of Friday Labor market review in the U.S. the given situation contributes to steep moves of exchange rates, which are often difficult to analyze.
So far, we recommend keeping positions that were opened yesterday (purchasing USD/CHF from 1,2670. Targets of purchases are: 1,2850 – short-term, 1,3160 – long-term). Stop should be placed over 1,2620, though there is still exists a risk that emotional downward emission can take place when they announce decision upon the rates.
As for USD/CAD rate, one should pay attention to its behavior near 1,2160-70. If the given level is broken out upward, that is likely to take the rate to 1,3260-70 and medium-term purchases seem to be the most optimal from here. However, in case the rate does not overcome the level of 1,3170, the given pair will restart its descending movement with 1,2750 target.
So far, we recommend keeping positions that were opened yesterday (purchasing USD/CHF from 1,2670. Targets of purchases are: 1,2850 – short-term, 1,3160 – long-term). Stop should be placed over 1,2620, though there is still exists a risk that emotional downward emission can take place when they announce decision upon the rates.
As for USD/CAD rate, one should pay attention to its behavior near 1,2160-70. If the given level is broken out upward, that is likely to take the rate to 1,3260-70 and medium-term purchases seem to be the most optimal from here. However, in case the rate does not overcome the level of 1,3170, the given pair will restart its descending movement with 1,2750 target.
The forecast was created by trans1.
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