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Forex · News · USMarketNEWS / USMarket |
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Market is waiting for the news…Forecast on the dynamics of USD/CHF and USD/CAD rates.
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08:45 03/31/2004
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Market is waiting for the news…Forecast on the dynamics of USD/CHF and USD/CAD rates.
We doubt that today we’ll see confident breaking out of 1,2265 level, which can be regarded as “a watershed” now. Breaking that level out will shift support status to key 1.2050 and will point to rise continuation to, as minimum, 1,2360.
However, strong motivation is needed here to increase the number of “Euro-bulls”. If ECB decides to leave the rates without a change tomorrow, that will be quite a motivation. Or if Friday Labor market report prepares a negative “surprise”.
So far, there aren’t enough stimuli for pair’s rise, but the situation may change in favor of sellers when London players come. However, one should not hurry. If English players start buying American currency, the most interesting level for purchases will be 1.2160.
If it is broken out downward, next support is expected to be on the level of 1,2080.
So, there exists the following market situation: two key events of the week are in the focus of market attention – ECB meeting that is to take place tomorrow and Friday Labor market review. Their results will determine further currency moves.
Buying European currency is more favorable that buying the dollar. However, we suppose opening these positions at pull-back, which is surely to take place.
For example, the nearest target of USD/CHF rate is the level of 1,2665 and medium-term purchases can possibly be made from here, in case there are strong confirming signals.
We assume careful purchases (with minimal amount of lots) of USD/CHF rate from 1,2670 (in case it approaches that level). Purchase targets: 1,2850 – short-term, 1,3160 – medium-term.
As for USD/CAD situation, we do not exclude the possibility of turning over: the rate approached significant levels and pull back to 1,3165 seems to be likely. Another series of selling is also to start from 1,3165. However, we do not have enough signals for purchasing and it is better to stay out of the market.
We assume careful purchases (with minimal amount of lots) of USD/CHF rate from 1,2670 (in case it approaches that level). Purchase targets: 1,2850 – short-term, 1,3160 – medium-term.
As for USD/CAD situation, we do not exclude the possibility of turning over: the rate approached significant levels and pull back to 1,3165 seems to be likely. Another series of selling is also to start from 1,3165. However, we do not have enough signals for purchasing and it is better to stay out of the market.
The forecast was created by trans1.
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