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Forex · News · Forex ForecastsNEWS / Forex Forecasts |
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Provocations are possible…Forecast on dynamics of USD/CHF rate.
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06:49 03/29/2004
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Provocations are possible…Forecast on dynamics of USD/CHF rate.
Friday market surprised many of its participants by its volatility, though such moves on the thin market are quite common. The Euro was fast at rising during the European trade session, as well as falling during the American one. The fact that Michigan sentiments index turned out to be surprisingly high made American players purchase the dollar. Let us remind that the given index made up 95.8 in March, whereas expected to be 94.1.
U.S. Personal income index for February turned out to be positive too. Forecasted as +0.3%, it made up +0.4%.
U.S. Personal expenses index for February was not as good as expected. It made up +0.2%, whereas forecasted +0.5%.
The same “fateful” question is on the agenda: to reduce or not to reduce. The fact is, the Euro has been under the pressure of growing expectations of ECB rate reduction for weeks. German IFO Institute added to that by openly appealing to ECB to reduce the rate.
The closest targets of EUR/USD decline and USD/CHF rise might be the levels of 1,1930 and 1,3010 respectively. However, we assume that the given move will be of provocative character. In other words, it will be aimed at “stopping” numerous shorts on USD, opened by impatient players.
In a whole, character of such move (if it ever takes place) will let us suppose how deep dollar correction would be.
On Friday, USD/CHF tested key level of 1,2900 twice. The given level lies on the border of descending channel that had it start last September. Breaking it out will not only show possible rise to 1,30 (only weekly resistance 1,32 is higher than that), but will change trade plans of players, using technical analysis, in many ways.
So far, we recommend staying out of the market today and waiting for more clear signals.
So far, we recommend staying out of the market today and waiting for more clear signals.
The forecast was created by trans1.
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